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HomeMy WebLinkAbout03-05-07 Special Called Joint Meeting of the La Porte Development Corporation Board of Directors and the La Porte City Council Minutes MINUTES OF THE SPECIAL CALLED JOINT MEETING OF THE LA PORTE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION BOARD OF DIRECTORS AND THE LA PORTE CITY COUNCIL March 05, 2007 1. Call to Order President Pat Muston and Mayor Alton E. Porter called the meeting to order at 5: 05 p. m. Members Present: 4B Development Board - Bill Love, Chuck Engelken, Trent Wise, Tommy Moser, Mike Clausen, Ed Matuszak, Pat Muston City Council- Howard Ebow, Chuck Engelken, Tommy Moser, Mike Clausen, Barry Beasley, Mayor Porter, Mike Mosteit, Louis Rigby. Members Absent: None Staff Present: Interim City Manager John Joerns, City Secretary Martha Gillett, Assistant City Attorney Clark Askins, Interim Finance Director Michael Dolby, Human Resources Manager Robert Swanagan, EMS Chief Ray Nolen, Parks & Recreation Director Stephen Barr, Assistant to the City Manager Crystal Scott, Chief Police Richard Reff, and Intern Mike Stokes. Others Present: Marcy Barr, Lauren Barr, Kay Scott, Dottie Kaminski and John Handy of the Houston Chronicle. 2. Motion was made bv Board Member Ed Matuszak to approve the Minutes of January 22, 2007 Special Called Regular Meeting of La Porte Development Corporation Board. Second by Board Member Chuck Engelken. Motion carried unanimously. Ayes: Bill Love, Ed Matuszak, Trent Wise, Pat Muston, Mike Clausen, Chuck Engelken and Tommy Moser. Nays: None Abstain: None Executive Item was taken out of order. 6. EXECUTIVE SESSION - PURSUANT TO PROVISION OF THE OPEN MEETINGS LAW, CHAPTER 551.071 THROUGH 551.076, 551-087, TEXAS GOVERNMENT CODE (CONSULTATION WITH ATTORNEY, DELIBERATION REGARDING REAL PROPERTY, DELIBERATION REGARDING PROSPECTIVE GIFT OR DONATION, PERSONNEL MATTERS, DELIBERATION REGARDING SECURITY DEVICES, OR EXCLUDING A WITNESS DURING EXAMINATION OF ANOTHER WITNESS IN AN INVESTIGATION, DELIBERATION REGARDING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT NEGOTIATIONS) Special Called Joint Meeting of the La Porte Development Corporation and the La Porte City Council - 3/05/2007 SECTION - 551-072 - (PROPERTY SALE OR EXCHANGE) MEET WITH INTERIM CITY MANAGER AND CITY ATTORNEY REGARDING CITY/COUNTY HOTEL PROJECT FOR THE PURPOSE OF DELIBERATING THE PURCHASE, EXCHANGE, LEASE OR VALUE OF REAL PROPERTY The La Porte Development Corporation and La Porte City Council retired to Executive Session at 5:07 p.m. and returned to the Regular Meeting and reconvened at 5:44 p.m. 7. Considerations and possible action on items considered in Executive Session. There was no action taken during Executive Session. 3. La Porte Development Corporation to consider approval or other action regarding funding website for the La Porte Development Corporation. Motion was made by Board Member Ed Matuszak to approve funding for the website and linking it to the City of La Porte website as recommended. Second by Board Member Bill Love. Motion carried unanimously. Ayes: Bill Love, Pat Muston, Ed Matuszak, Mike Clausen, Trent Wise, Chuck Engelken and Tommy Moser. Nays: None Abstain: None Motion '.vas made by Councilman to approve funding f-or the v/ebsite as recommended. Second by Cmmeilman. Motion carried 1:lnanimol:lsly. Ayes: Mike Clausen, Barry Beasley, Chuck Engelken, HO'Nard Ebo':/, Mike Mosteit, Louis Rigby, Tommy Moser and Mayor Porter. Nays: None Abstain: None 4. Parks & Recreation Director Stephen Barr provided a presentation on Sylvan Beach Shoreline Stabilization and Beach Restoration Project. There was no direction provided. 5 Interim City Manager John Joerns and Parks & Recreation Director Stephen Barr provided a presentation and discussed funding of Pasadena - La Porte Joint Venture Sports Complex. Motion was made bv Board Member Bill Love to finance Debt Service for the La Porte Venture Sports Complex as recommended. Second by Board Member Chuck Engelken. Motion carried unanimously. Ayes: Bill Love, Pat Muston, Trent Wise, Ed Matuszak, Mike Clausen, Chuck Engelken and Tommy Moser. Nays: None Abstain: None 8. Administrative Reports. 2 Special Called Joint Meeting of the La Porte Development Corporation and the La Porte City Council - 3/05/2007 Interim City Manager John Joerns & Interim Finance Director Michael Dolby provided Administrative reports on the following: Update on economic development position Hotel consulting services & market analysis: schedule Project Austin Powers Revenues/expenditures Bay Area Blvd. Project Future Topics/Meetings 9. Board Comments 10. Adjournment The meeting was duly adjourned at 6:38 p.m. _~~~~~lY ~~~tIJ)i/~e~, 7 (,j- .G\.., L-' "/ / , . ~-';., ..../\........ Martha A. Gillett . City Secretary TRMC, CMC La Porte Development Corporation Secretary Q~~ y~(~ Aiton E. Pont~, Mayo~ 3 26 CITY OF LA PORTE, TEXAS Balance Sheet Governmental Funds September 30, 2006 2005 General Section 4B Obligation General Sales Tax Bonds ASSETS Cash and cash equivalents $ 7,536,003 $ 1,830,686 $ 97,152 Investments 5,287,784 1,772,321 7,598,390 Receivables, net of allowance for uncollectibles: Accounts receivable 4,126,733 Taxes receivable 647,980 Due from other governments Grant receivable Other accounts receivables 229,385 918 Accrued interest receivable 74,781 21,224 573 Materials and supplies inventories, at cost 70,126 Total assets 17,743,407 3,853,616 7,697,033 LIABILITIES AND FUND BALANCES Liabilities: Accounts payable 2,679,812 651,832 Accrued salaries payable 280,331 Due to other funds Retainage payable Unearned revenue 3,538,917 Accrued employee separation pay 100,000 Total liabilities 6,599,060 651,832 Fund balances: Reserved for: Inventories 71,118 Encumbrances 140,055 Municipal Court Building Security Municipal Court Technology Fee Park Zone Confiscated funds Debt service Unreserved, Designated for capital projects 51,084 Unreserved/Undesignated 10,882,101 3,853,615 7,045,200 Unreserved, reported in nonmajor: Special revenue funds Capital projects funds Total fund balances 11,144,358 3,853,615 7,045,200 Total liabilities and fund balances $ 17,743,418 $ 3,853,615 $ 7,697,032 See accompanying notes to basic financial statements. 30 Other Total Governmental Governmental Funds Funds $ 5,765,883 $ 15,229,724 10,319,398 24,977,893 4,126,733 108,386 756,366 4,716 4,716 46,290 276,593 56,059 152,637 70,126 16,300,732 45,594,788 881,195 4,212,839 2,319 282,650 168 168 163,282 3,702,199 100,000 1,046,964 8,297,856 71,118 140,055 106,652 106,652 73,724 73,724 180,902 180,902 116,391 116,391 1,813,887 1,813,887 51,084 21,780,916 1,193,533 1,193,533 11,768,673 11,768,673 15,253,762 37,296,935 $ 16,300,726 45,594,791 31 CITY OF lA PORTE, TEXAS Statement of Revenues, Expenditures and Changes in Fund Balances Governmental Funds For The Year Ended September 30, 2006 2005 General Section 4B Obligation General Sales Tax Bonds REVENUES Property taxes $ 10,454,157 $ $ Franchise taxes 1,986,698 Sales taxes 2,495,547 1,245,774 Donations Industrial payments 7,470,700 Harris County Joint Venture Other taxes 69,310 Licenses and permits 683,284 Fines and forfeits 876,930 Charges for services 3,852,570 Intergovernmental 8,489 Interest 652,700 121,396 303,628 Miscellaneous 24,778 Total revenues 28,575,163 1,367,170 303,628 EXPEN DITU RES Current: General Government 6,047,422 Public Safety 11,071,829 Public Works 2,360,073 Health and Sanitation 1,813,812 Culture and Recreation 3,010,725 Debt service: Principal retirements Interest and fiscal charges Capital outlay 3,707,975 Total expenditures 24,303,861 3,707,975 Excess (deficiency) of revenues over expenditures 4,271,302 1 ,367,170 (3,404,347) OTHER FINANCING SOURCES (USES) Proceeds from sale of long term debt Transfers in 647,449 2,800,000 Transfers out (3,045,803) (740,060) Proceeds from sale of Assets 90,083 Total other financing sources (uses) (2,308,271 ) (740,060) 2,800,000 Net change in fund balances 1,963,031 627,110 (604,347) Fund balances-beginning 9,181,327 3,226,505 7.649,547 Fund balances-ending $ 11,144,358 $ 3,853,615 $ 7,045,200 See accompanying notes to basic financial statements. 34 Other Total Governmental Governmental Funds Funds $ 1,708,484 $ 12,162,641 1,986,698 3,741,321 7,470,700 257,194 326,504 683,284 876,930 35,000 3,887,570 1,165,892 1,174,381 631,439 1,709,163 109,905 134,683 3,907,914 34,153,875 1,189,343 7,236,765 11,071,829 2,360,073 1,813,812 3,010,725 1,195,000 1,195,000 1,374,314 1,374,314 2,842,334 6,550,309 6,600,991 34,612,827 (2,693,077) (458,952) 7,156,055.00 7,156,055.00 2,608,425 6,055,874 (3,746,739) (7,532,602) 90,083 6,017,741 5,769,410 3,324,664 5,310,458 11,929,098 31,986,477 $ 15,253,762 $ 37,296,935 35 f?NIJ I MARKET STUDY WITH PROSPECTIVE FINANCIAL ANAL YSIS PROPOSED 250-ROOM SYLVAN BEACH HOTEL LA PORTE, TEXAS March 2007 PKF CONSUL TING PKF Consulting 1:010 Linlldl Sh~et SUite 400 Houston T X March 12,2007 Tf:iepi;Ofle I! ~ 1} 62' -S:lS2 Tcicfi:1X r 71 :)} 621 -91.9': Mr. John Joerns City of La Porte 604 West Fairmont Parkway La Porte, Texas 77571 Dear Mr. Joerns: In accordance with our engagement letter dated October 18, 2006 with Consultivo LLP, we have completed a market study and estimates of prospective financial performance for the proposed 250-room Sylvan Beach Hotel, located on Galveston Bay in La Porte, Texas. The conclusions reached are based upon our present knowledge of the competitive market resulting from our fieldwork completed February 14, 2007. As in all studies of this type, the estimated results are based upon competent and efficient management and presume no significant change in the competitive position of the project from that as set forth in this report. The terms of our engagement are such that we have no obligation to revise this report to reflect events or conditions that occur subsequent to the date of the completion of our fieldwork. However, we are available to discuss the necessity for revision in view of changes in the economic or market factors affecting the proposed project. Although they have been conscientiously prepared using information obtained during the course of this study and our experience in the industry, the proposed property's future performance is based on estimates and assumptions, which are subject to uncertainty and variation, and we do not represent them as results that will actually be achieved. We would be pleased to hear from you if we may be of further assistance in the interpretation and application of our findings and conclusions. We express our appreciation to you and your associates for the cooperation extended to us during the course of this assignment. Respectfully submitted, PKF Consulting ~R~ m<-~ G. Randle McCaslin Vice President MARKET STUDY WITH PROSPECTIVE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS PROPOSED 250-ROOM SYLVAN BEACH HOTEL lA PORTE, TEXAS TABLE OF CONTENTS I - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Page Scope and Methodology....................................................................................,........... 1-1 Conclusions......................................................................................,............................ 1-2 II - AREA OVERVIEW Introduction........................................................................................,......................... 11-1 Demographic and Economic Trends......... ,.................................................................. 11-1 Transportation .............,......... ....,. .......... ...... ............ ................ ... ... ... .......... ... ... ............11-7 Office Market..............................,...............................................,................................. 11-9 Convention Center...................................................................................................., 11-10 Tourism........................,.......................................................................,..,.................. 11-11 Texas Medical Center........................... ,.................................................,..,..........,.... 11-12 Museum District ....................,........... ...... ...... ...... .... ...... ....... ... .......,......... ... ......,........11-12 La Porte Area Overview.......................................................................................,...., 11-14 Conclusion ,.................................,.....................................................................,........ 11-21 III - PROPERTY DESCRIPTION Location........................,....,..............................................................................,.......... 111-1 Site Description........................................................................................................... 111-1 Recommended Facilities...................................................................,......................... 111-2 Conclusion.....................................................................................................,...... ,..... 111-4 IV - HOTEL MARKET ANALYSIS Hotel Market Overview............................................................................................... .IV-1 Historic Performance.................................................................................................. .IV-3 Market Demand Segmentation ...,.......... ...... ........ .... ........ ........ ... .............,..... ...,.... .... ..IV-5 Additions to Supply...................................,...............................................,................. .IV-5 Hotel Demand Overview.. ,...........................................................................,......,...... .IV-6 Subject Hotel Performance ..,........... ...... ...... ........... ...... .......... .......,..,... ... ... ........ .......,IV-9 VI - PROSPECTIVE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS Bases of Estimations...............................,.................................................,................. VI-1 Departmental Revenues........,.........................................................................,........... VI-1 Departmental Expenses.............................................................................................. VI-2 Undistributed Operating Expenses. ...... ..... ...................... ............. ....... ...... .......... ..... ... VI-3 Fixed Expenses.. ..................,...... ..... ..... ...... ........ ... ....,............ ... ... ... ... .......... ........ ...... VI-3 Reserve for Replacement..,..........................................................................,..........,... VI-3 Schedule of Prospective Cash Flow before Debt Service........................................... VI-3 MARKET STUDY WITH PROSPECTIVE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS PROPOSED 250-ROOM SYLVAN BEACH HOTEL LA PORTE, TEXAS ADDENDA A. Photographs of Sylvan Beach Park & Proposed Hotel Site B. Statement of Assumptions and Limiting Conditions C. Certification SECTION I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PKF Consulting EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I - 1 SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY In preparing this study, we completed the research and analysis listed below: . Conducted an inspection of the subject site and the surrounding area in order to determine their impact on the proposed hotel. . Assembled, reviewed and analyzed economic, demographic and real estate market data pertaining to the Houston market area in general and the La Porte area in particular to evaluate the present economic climate and to estimate future growth potential, particularly as it relates to lodging demand. . Interviewed representatives of area government, businesses and the community to gather data on current and future area growth and the demand for lodging and meeting facilities. . Conducted a survey of area businesses and community organizations to determine the need for an upscale, full-service hotel with meeting space. . Interviewed representatives of existing meeting facilities to assess the quality and quantity of available meeting space in the La Porte area, types of events captured, types of events turned away, and rental rates. . Evaluated the existing area hotels, comparable hotels and competitive hotels located outside the market area to determine the degree of competition that they are likely to offer the proposed hotel, size and type of facilities available, and rate structure for the proposed hotel. . Prepared a summary of historic market performance, including available rooms, occupied rooms, market occupancy, market segmentation, and average daily room rate for the period 2002 to 2006. · Identified other proposed hotels to assess their probability of completion and the degree to which they will compete with your project. · Recommended the concept, size and type of facilities, and amenities appropriate for the market for the proposed hotel. · Estimated future competitive position and rnarket performance of the subject proposed hotel for the period 2010 to 2014. · Based on the estimated future competitive position of the subject proposed hotel, prepared a schedule of prospective cash flow before debt service and income taxes for the subject hotel for the period 2010 to 2019. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS 1.2 A concise summary of the conclusions of this report follows: · Houston is posting healthy growth, driven by the strong energy sector. The continued diversification of the metro area's industrial structure and the above average population growth will ensure healthy overall growth over the forecast horizon. Based on economic growth rates in Houston, a positive economic environment for the hospitality industry is estimated over the foreseeable future. · The magnitude of the Port of Houston and petrochemical industry coupled with the recent increase in business and leisure activity in the La Porte market area appears to support the need for an upscale, full-service hotel. · The proposed Sylvan Beach Hotel will be well-located on scenic Galveston Bay proximate to both business and leisure demand generators. We consider the subject site to be well-suited for hotel development. · The recommended facilities program for the proposed Sylvan Beach Hotel is appropriate for the market in type, size and quality. The amount of meeting space will provide a competitive advantage for the subject property in attracting group meetings demand. · There are currently no full-service hotels located in the primary market area. Therefore, there is no directly competitive hotel market that can be used as a competitive set for the proposed Sylvan Beach Hotel. In order to determine the recommended facilities and to estimate the performance of the subject hotel, we have evaluated three different sets of hotels: existing area hotels, comparable hotels and competitive hotels located outside the market area, · The primary hotel market area is comprised of limited-service, select-service and extended-stay hotels located in La Porte, Pasadena and Deer Park. The existing hotels have experienced occupancies in the upper 60's and low 70's, except for 2003 and 2004 during the national recession. This reflects the strong corporate demand in the primary market area. The large increase in occupied rooms in 2005 shows the resurgence of the petrochemical industry in response to the strong Texas economy. · Comparable hotels are defined as hotels that are located in similar markets. For the proposed hotel, a comparable hotel would be a full-service hotel located on or near a bay, lake or beach but also proximate to corporate demand. Occupancies have remained around 60% at the corn parable properties, which is indicative of the seasonality of demand in a strongly leisure oriented market. In 2006, rates ranged from $110 to $160 at the comparable properties with an average of $129. This is a good indication of the potential rates that would be obtainable at the subject property. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I- 3 . As part of our market analysis, a survey was conducted of the major corporations located in the two major business parks within the primary market area for the proposed hotel. The respondents were asked to identify the hotels that they currently use for their hotel and meeting needs. The hotels which were identified are considered to be the competitive hotels located outside the market area. Occupancies at the competitive hotels reached the upper 60's in 2006. Since these properties are located outside the market area, they do not reflect the strength of the primary market area. · The market demand segmentation for the existing area hotels, comparable hotels and competitive hotels located outside the market are illustrated in the following table. Market Demand Segmentation Exist~' I"I'~ Area coale Competitive Market Segment Hot'll. .;.. ~ ~C~ Hotels Corporate 70% 28% 56% Group Meeting 20% 42% 29% Leisure 10% 30% 15% Total 100% 100% 100% Source: PKF Consulting The mix of demand for the existing area hotels is a good indication of the mix of demand located in the primary market area. Discussions with the local hotel representatives indicated that the higher rated properties are able to attract the less price sensitive engineers that are not leaving the market and international visitors to the Port and petrochemical industry, whereas the lower rated properties cater to the construction workers and trucking industry. The mix of the comparable properties shows their orientation toward the group and leisure markets. Corporate demand in these markets is not as strong as in the primary market area. Competitive hotels located outside the market area have stronger corporate and group markets, somewhat similar to the primary market area. · There are no other full-service hotels being developed in the La Porte market area, except for the proposed Sylvan Beach Hotel, which is scheduled to open in January 2010. · In order to evaluate the demand for an upscale, full-service hotel in the primary market area, we conducted a mail survey of corporations located in the Battleground Industrial District and Bayport Industrial District and La Porte community organizations. Of those that responded, 58% of the corporations and 50% of the community organizations indicated that they had a need for an upscale, full-service hotel for overnight accommodations. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I- 4 · The respondents indicated that 70% of the corporations and 100% of the community organizations had a need for meeting space at an upscale, full- service hotel. · The surveys returned by the corporations indicated that 78% were leaving the market area for hotel accommodations and 82% were leaving the market area for meeting space needs. · When asked if they would use an upscale, full-service hotel located on Sylvan Beach or the La Porte Bayfront for hotel accommodations and/or meeting space needs, 79% of the corporations and 100% of the community organizations indicated that they definitely would. The results of this survey are a strong indicator that there is a need for an upscale, full-service hotel at the proposed site. · The subject hotel is expected to capture the following mix of demand. Corporate Group Leisure Total 60% 25% 15% 100% Source: PKF Consulting The majority of the demand for the proposed Sylvan Beach hotel will be corporate demand from the Port of Houston and the petrochemical industry. Group demand will be generated by corporate, association and community events. Leisure demand will be generated by Project Stars, Bayport Cruise Terminal and Sylvan Beach. · The estimated operating performance of the proposed Sylvan Beach Hotel in La Porte, Texas is, as follows: Estimated Operating Performance Proposed Sylvan Beach Hotel la Porte, Texas Annual Tr~ve.l~lf Net Operating Year Occupancy "~ jly ":l: Income 2010 64% $158 $3,176,000 2011 68% $162 $3,559,000 2012 72% $167 $3,953,000 2013 74% $172 $4,176,000 2014 74% $177 $4,295,000 . Stated Year Dollars, rounded to the nearest dollar. Based on an ADR of $140 in 2006 dollars. Source: PKF Consulting SECTION II AREA OVERVIEW PKF Consulting AREA OVERVIEW 11-1 INTRODUCTION The Houston Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area (PMSA) includes six counties: Chambers, Fort Bend, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery, and Waller. Houston is the largest city in Texas and the fourth largest city in the U.S. Houston has a broad business base, NASA and the aerospace industry, an internationally recognized medical center, the international oil and gas industry and a varied base of local businesses and nationally recognized service firms. The subject property is located in La Porte, Texas, which is in Harris County. As a Houston bedroom community, La Porte is primarily influenced by the Houston PMSA. DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TRENDS Note: Economy,com provided the following demographic and economic data. Information relating to other topics has been obtained through a variety of media, including web sites, publications, interviews or other sources considered reliable. PKF Consulting has reviewed and analyzed the Economy.com data, The following pages present an economic snapshot of the United States, the South, and Houston, respectively. AREA OVERVIEW 11-2 Relative Employment Performance (1991=100) 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 91 92 93 94 95 9Ci 97 98 99 Forecast 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 -us II' .1 't. I' II; II' I I 9.4 70 9.817 9.891 10.049 10.301 10.704 11.049 Gross Domestic Product. CSB 11.409 11.709 12.070 12.443 12.823 45 3.7 0.8 1.6 2.5 39 3.2 C/Janyc 33 26 3.1 31 3.1 129.0 131.8 1318 130.3 130.0 131.4 133.5 Total Employment (Mil) 135.3 136.7 1381 139.9 141.8 24 22 00 .U -0,3 1.1 1.5 14 10 1.0 1.3 1.4 42 4.0 47 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1 Unemployment Rate 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.6 51 80 35 1.8 32 6.2 5.2 Personal Income Growth 71 5.4 52 5.1 5.0 279.0 2822 285.1 288.0 290.9 293.7 296.4 Population (Mil) 299.1 3018 3045 307.2 309.8 13 12 13 1.4 15 16 1.7 Single-Family Starts (Mil) 1.5 1.3 13 1.3 13 03 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 Multitamily Starts (Mil) 0.3 03 03 0.4 0.4 1.279 1062 2.121 2.818 4.067 2.761 3.105 Mortgage Originations (BiIS) 2.804 2.287 2,003 2.041 2,137 1.282 1,218 1.452 1.539 1.625 1563 2,039 Personal Bankruptcies (000) 971 1.279 1,335 1360 1.445 4.6 58 3.4 1.6 1.0 1.4 3.1 91.Day Treasury Bill ('/,) 4.7 47 4.6 4,6 44 5.6 60 5.0 4.6 4.0 4.3 43 10.Year Treasury Bond C%) 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.6 ANALYSIS STRENGTHS . Continued higl, rate of technological change . Broad-based global growth. . Record corporate profits and pnsline corporate balance sheets WEAKNESSES . High debt service burdens and negative personal savmg rales . Skewecllncome and wealth dlstnbutlon . Large current account deficit . large rederal govemmenl deficits CURRENT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS October 2006 Employment Growth % change year ago. 3 mo. MA FORECAST RISKS - UPSIDE . Labor productiVity growth remams strong, supportIng strong growth and low mOatlol1. DOWNSIDE . Another terronst attack . Consumers pull back under the weight of high debt loads . Global investors pamc due to wtdenlng current account deficit and sell U.S, assets, R{'n~nll'('rfnrm,jtnu~.l ...,. i, (HHnllll :_:[',\\111 het... \H'<lk.oIU'<I dllfln;: lilt, ",; <inti Il;lilld 1Jll' ~t'dL l{eal (tlW pU'h'tl " "I rw!\ 1.1 III 11ll' ,hInt qll~lr't.r ;tnd I.... 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L'Il:"'1 pnn'... <It'l' 110\\ \\(.tlkl'lill:' 1"1](11'1'''', ;11 lill' slrOll1-: hclw...l ot l't'glll;tllll'" . tI:-'1 1 Ilil.1I1\ (ip pear to be lI,i~hh'llini-~ !no:t.~~,j.Y IllU II'!"..'. ! r~Jl,!'. sland;lrd.... \\l1l1t. ulrlllldl,'1\ I!H'J".1!Wlllli 111(' 11;;11<11 illljJml \\ III tw 10 funht'r crimp how;,. 11l;-'. dl'IH.:IIHI and IIHTt'aSI' cn'dH probll'm"" 110lenltd gro\\1b,\1 tht' ....;mH' Irmt! tlw t'tOIlO :m I'S ~lnlggltllg 10 11l,UllI<l1Il gnmlh l1t'i1r II.... po 1l'~llldl. Ih;.1I potl'llll;d appear... to 1)(' ....lippin'~. ,\n 1'1 (j!lomy.... pot('llll;ll i.... ttw ral(' of gro\\th IOf) ...1StI'lIt \\ ilh st;tblc lllH'l11plo~ Itwnt ilud lat Ion ill ni/.llttJll ral('.... Ill'; ('qual to Ill(' ....urn of under II :ng pl'Odlldl\ II) ;llld J;111Or t'on..t' growlh, lilt' t't{)n()III~.... polt.'nluti Itip.. ...imH'd "IIKi' rl,(, lWgUHllllg 01 lIlt' di'{;I(II'. due to ....IllIll.. ',,, !lat slmH'f ~~nJ\\ th in hOlh pnlductl\'i'~ ,nul 11 II' labor font'. \londr..... hO!l(Jm~ ,t Olll 1.....1 i lIid!'.... tiw I .s. l'lllrHHll~'''' pnlt'nll~11 .t-'.rtJ\\lh r ,!ft' iil j"". ('qual to ...'''" underlying prndtH'rt\ 11\ ).;1'0\\ t II <Inti I Idhor force gnJ\\ t h. rhis \.... dlJ\\n JrwIlL~l"" (ltlrlll~~ tht, IiI'" hdll flllhi"i dl'l.lde. POlt'lllhd 1'" ("lH'l lnllo toll I lurlhl'l', II) !H'al' .!.-l','" 0\('[" Iht' next (h'Cl\(h'. 11.......1!1\ ('stnli'1l111l tJw \\;11..:,. ollllC' liTI1 1,11...1, ,I "I'\'llllfl).~h ...10\\1'( p.llt' of h't'JlJwlogit.,tl (!ldll~~I' d!id thl' PI'OdU(11\ II~ ,:-.:.lPping di\j'p..imh IT(';II t'\! h) the ht'I~~hl(,lll'(llWI'd 10 1II\!"st III i'IH'll~~ Ilig l.'qlllpllH'1l1 .:Iml St'fUI'JI~ ,In' \\t'J1<111l1g on !If'f)duclhH\ g.lin:-. ,\ ,10\\1:1' ratl.' 01 tnrd(;n iln' dlh' to tIlt' str()n~~j'r gloh.1i t'((jTlom~ tighh:r I .S, "t'~'lIrity 1JIt'<l'ures. fUll! 0.1 J1at IditOl' tOl\e parrinpal1un r"lt' ;Irt' \\('lgfung on i,dlor lorn' grO\\lh, Tlw h~llI;'lh' p;\r1lcip,ltIClll 1;11\' IS no Illn,:I'l' n....lng;md ltw hTlhlgi' pdr11U pdtlllll nile U)lJlHlllt''\ 10 d('dl1H', Mondy's EUHlOllll'.{'(JIll expens growth to J"('ludin below lhe ('uJIlomy's :{'.\~ re.;,lI (;DP growth potentialthruug:h next spring:. I hc llllcmploymcnt ratc will edl(c highl,r Ihmugh Ihc middle of ncxt ycar. risinl( 10 near :l%. This- higlu:r lU1CJllploymcnl r~Uc. .dong with continued low el1('r~)-' prin~s dnd lethered inllalion expc('latiol1s, will be ...uftkiel1t to ensure that und('rlring infla. lion peaks in early 2007. Core ('PI intliuiol1 j,,,, expected to top out at :~,\;, \Jl/d,: M. Idl1dl \(n '1.'I1l!ll'r _'J JOtl Moody's Economy.com. lnc, . www.ecooomy.com.halpqteconomy.com.Pr.Qcis METRO AREA OVERVIEW 11-3 Relative Employment Performance (1991=100) 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 'Yl II- II Gross Regioni11 Product csa Total Employment (000) 2.8631 2.9315 2.9829 3.0367 3.115.3 3.264 () 3.403.9 41.727 42706 42.710 42.323 42.244 42.980 43,,28 2J -09 1,7 .1 1 ~~ 9 .1 l S 7 58 5.3 50 53 19 ~ b 2.2 3_5 6.9 61 (i:t~bO ':J3.BYI 9S.~~:! U6,3B~' ~ll.b6S 990.19 100,;)11 816,05577056098676.217 7 728;588.) 748,9686903,610,3407.458)) 521()64 500.461 528603 576016 639.833 726.828 797.044 H:2 165.622 ;t5o.8-H4 177,479 170,:W~} 196,775 200.165 190,* ,,)9_B 21:19 225.2 2374 25(i5 288.8 328433 290.139 503.095 617.361 923,397 655,722 786,079 5.5858 5.8838 5.8939 5.6405 5.6125 5.751.4 5.8426 459.503 445.527 508.352 557.607 599.339 594.253 627.229 STRENGTHS . Balanced housing markets in most of tile region, . Strong polll,cal base "' U.S Congress . Low business costs relative to U_S . Strong population growth WEAKNESSES . Globalization IS redUCing the Soulhs competitive advantage . Workforce quality still lags in many pi:1r!s of the regIon . Low per capIta Income and rising debt-service burdens CURRENT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS October 2006 Employment Growth % change year ago, 3 mo, MA Tnl..'1 -2 -, FORECAST RISKS - UPSIDE . Baby boom generatton rel1res ear1ier Ulan expected, SI.JpPOr1lOg housing and services . New Iflvestment 111 tech and aulo plants revitalize melro areas . Defense spending stays high In light of global conflicts DOWNSIDE . Loss of manufactunng industries accelerates . Intra-regionrll migration dmlns nJral counties, stresses urban areas Unemployment Ratti Personallllcomc Growt!l POplll.ltlon (OOO) Net Migration (OOO) Single.F;unily Permits Multifamily Pcmlits House Price Index (1980Q1 ::: 100) Mortgage Oriyinations ISM) New Vehicle Registrations (000) Personal Biln~ruptcies ',(\ Recenl Pl'rlonnancL', 1:]. ('111l10Ll\ oj Ihf SOUlh 1:--; 1'\Jldndl11:', ,!l ,1 ,,11)\\111,:. l', \IHlOUgh <I malOnl) Ii! .out II ,,1.11_". .11'1' J.~n)\\illg <It a piKe lo1'-.k: 1:1.;1 Ill\' 1"i[ILlI, gro\\ll1 h,b ,lo\\t'd in Ii]; iLI'"-1 11'\\' qll,I["I'r.... (,1'0\\1111' ...lllI...tunl) III I ,\tldl,\:... Jl has ...l(]\\t'd llw Il1n...1 III .llJd I'll IW......I.\.. \\'Ili'r~' gro\\'lh I.!li" \\",11 h.lu\\ I Ill' 11,ltIOll.li and n'.!-:lon.d .I\''''+,'~''''. Ill. ilH.d l'I',1110n 111 ioh grO\\11t ill Ill" \fltllll II-'lh L11 Ihl... ~t'''r call lw Ir.1Ct'd t'l l\"1I hrtl,ld l1:du... tn.....: llliIllUf;.H lUring ,lIld .)\1' i]l'''-'''- "en HI S II1\' plC!tIn' ~~I'lS 1l1l1l'h,,'r .I; 11li' nwt:u It'H']. l'I\II.\.,(' Illl' ...t<t"'.., ',\])il 1 sljm\ ,I ;('11 l'ral ...!Cl\\lllg .!tT(h'> 111,' l!rll,ld. 111l'H' I" 1lI\', lI1<Tl'a"'l'd dl"'p('r'IOIl 111 :111'1;11 <llI'.! IW lor 111,1IKt' <tllllmg "'Ollllll'lll :'11\'1::1 ;tlt'.1'" \\, Ilik 1110...1 d!'t' 1]0\\ 'l'I'lI1g ...J(l',\\': Ii'!) :_~rll\\l;j :l,tJ) l'arllt.1' tllh ~(,ill'. SOJlH' \,1'\ 1:1'\1"1' .ltl',I'"-, :]1 dudll1il, tho...t' III ""(Jut)l i i.lll:: ,1111\1...1<::11 -"",lJJ \l1toIllO. .\11<1 1{,l1i'lgh, il,ll. 10 lllli'J 1:\ .'d pt'rfnnll,-lllu' o\er the lJ,!'-f 1111)11111-, Manufacluring. I\i'll ,j', !li"ln,li P,I\ 10]1... h.l\t' ...t"bill/I'd IllllimLd:'" Jllil111~LI PI[" lIlg llHl11...ln mllli' ~illlll1 01;' ::II"" III il:\..... dlil' In ltlt' l'fJl1lll11h'tI 1~1:1I_.>',\ 01 1ll.1I1l1Iat'lllrin,\~ frllm IIII' ~ 11,1.., f-.i'::n: t.\. li'llfH's:">I'c' and \rt.:tlll",j'> ':\1..1 rl.ll p-II.lut lion IsgrO\dnJ~, hUI.II,J Pdll' (~I Iiii' natHifla! ,l\t'ri1g1'_ Thl' ;1\1 :-,1"1 111(111\11;\. II: "li~ \\nrk\\t.'tk 11".... also :>.1.1;11'11 '... "ll 01... II i 0 fill ll\'S 10 rlsl' ntl' lotl,llh, Business scrvkes, \]1:1(>11 :11 ..Ill! Ifl,', Illl' nation, lilt' 1l10d"LIIll;!1 101.1 .\~n '.\1 III Ini'lIll'S:>' "'1'l'\Hc' lIldl!..t!'II'>'; ~:,I" 111'1'0,1 I~Kl()r \\('I~;hll1g on ll\ ,:;ro\~ 1;1 d ft'\\ notahle t'\(l'ptl0f)~. I ),rll,l~ ,I !\a kigh. IW;lr!y ill! majol' ...r)\:III, : Illlll...lllt'...... I'll IeI'''' h.l\!' ",~'i'n..1 ...harp 1111Idl'I,1l1Ilii Illnng ...11Ot11d,,-f;lhlll/" 111t' ill'ill ~; 1 :11, hm\t'\!'!'. IIH'lkl~t' H(){.k h Illr\t-I-' ,'tll lwr dllll ()(.lllht,! hlll11 JIll 'I! 1,1111\ allwil s]()\\lllg, IJlf"lJl~~ III ill., "\T\j('(', II..., -u.S Forecast 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Sou1h II . II I.: II' I I 3.5200 3.646 7 3,764 t 3.8861 40097 44 749 454~)5 46, i 34 46,893 47,7J7 1.9 1,6 16 , 45 ,17 ,: 6 ,~ :; .l4 R_O 6,3 5.7 56 56 101199 10T 1.:;: 1 04,Jn3 1O~,blt> 1:J!, 101 1 '09.950.0649.120.368737847547850850.7828 710032 619413 571.983 561,975 553A49 198,9I8 15G.1..H) 156.792 1~)4,731 t62,D94 3180 3267 332.0 J41_3 3528 686313 590A.12 539,658 5..:2;~76 560,723 6,105_9 6,Oi52 5,966.9 5,9521 5984,6 434.545 401071 441,849 4":7,:12? 474.550 ANALYSIS Inl'.... 1.~pl'naJh III h.'11lpOrar~ hl'lp_ Strong ,-,jrpnr<ilt. prolll ~,:n)\\lh dnd d drop III t~rh"l'};~ "li'l( t'''' Illd\ help pnl\HhO ....(llllt. 11II11' III hW'd ;]1':-." hiring 111 thl' llt'dl' knll. (>fcelil ('oltditi(}n~. The ')oulll l~ !t-,,:-, t.\. :HI....l'd 10 " 1iqulllll) crullch Oll IIii' p<lrt oj .t'l1(kr,,_ \lUdl ul ttlt' SOlllh t'll,lors 10\\('1" IId)l St'I'\ICl' burdt'Il<';, \\hleh ll1.'lk('s 111(' n', ~:j)n J't'I<llJ\'t'l\ k...s 1'1...1-\\' for It.ll(k1'..... I H1'111l'r, [lW,,1 ,",o\ltl)(,fn rl'....ah'nl:-; ill!>.o enjoy <l ]0\\('1" !(j;mIO\ilhw r;lllo, \\hidl sugges,ls lllat l!W~ dn' more' \'(,'Slt'd in Iht'ir hOIlIt.S, and htl\l' a :I!t Inor... to lose lrom \\',llknl~~ i1\,.I) from t" ':-.IJ!lg llI()rlga~~("... B\ t'Olllrdsl. 11OIIll'0\\l1tTS 11 11H' hollt'r \orttlt'.l...t ;111<1 \\t....t COdst mar .dl.... 11.1\(' lwndill't! Irolll I:'\otlt.' !IlOrl,~ag('~ : ];.rl hd\l' ..Ilo\\t'd thelll 10 purdlihc homes -"Hll \I'r~ IJllk t'qully qake, C.lU:-.ll1g. luglll'r ,lldn.to'\i1IUt, ralHl.... in llll'si' miilk('h, 1 () "iun', tllo:>.l "'ollllH'rll ..1;1I1's do ...nllt,! ',\"dk.1.'l' (l'l'dil qll.dl1\ 111.111llw n....1 01 1111' 11,1 \1011.1 hh I:>. t'\H.II'II11'd b~ hiJ~IH'r ;l11<1 rhilW ,1.'lll1qUl'IH~ I,llt.,,, lUJ;twr Iwr tdPlt.l h.mh. li[ilt'\ 11Inlg..., dud hli!,lwr I.holll hunkll...., 110\\ ,'\ fT. Iht,St, art' ,-,I!'lletllrill 1;ldor:>., Ilwnk.., 10 1'1'1,111\ l'l~ mild hOIJSt'IHICl' ilppn;IJilllol1 fhl' n'II'!)! hoom I HlW"" mort,\;dg(' t'qllll~ -,\Hhdra\\aJ hit.... pJil).('d a rdall\t'l~ mil101 t~k illl)O!sll.'nl1~~ II!Conll.' ,\~ro\.\lh ll\ Illo"" 01 11;(' SOlllh. I hl' IICi\I'.tcnn ollllook is swill<- lur thl' South re,Aion, whkh rac~~ Ic~s risk fro III higher huerest I'~ttes and uu'rC'eling hous- ing I1tarkcts than does the rcst of Ihe coun- tn. Onll Florid.! .!nd nnrlhcl'll Virgini.. ..rl' ,II risk of ~, ('nrJ'~'ction of t1H~ir housing !1hlrkcl. dnd homcbuilding could cven ((('- cell'rate on the Atlantic coasl given lhe .t(Teleraljng enHtomy there. Energy expl()- ration ~tll(1 development favor T(:x..ls ~tnd I he Soullnvest. Hdf..l'.\1l ,\Jwllf..tlt \~I\'('mher .!OUt. Mo,x1'{ '" Econollly,i:(II: I, Itlc . '.'....'I'N.e<:onollly.com. holpi4'ccOflOfIl)',com. Procis METRO 11-4 AREA OVERVIEW Relative Employment Performance (1991=100) 150 140 130 120 110 100 Forecast 90 91 92 93 94 95 9" 97 98 ,,')9 ()iJ 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 MHOU -U.S. "-HOU II' " " , " "; I" , I 1876 1925 197,0 2028 2053 2144 222,8 Gross Metro Product. CSB 2332 241,8 250,1 2578 266,5 42 26 23 2,9 1.2 4,5 3,9 ii,]fi9C 46 3.7 3.4 31 3,4 2,2022 2254.7 22938 2.288.7 2,274,3 2.289,9 2,350,' Total Employment (000) 2.417,5 2.4 75,2 2,5211 2.568,1 2.628,1 16 24 1 7 -02 .0,6 OJ 2,6 (..-'1,;lnge 29 2.4 1.9 19 2,3 48 4,3 4.7 60 67 63 56 Unemployment Rate 52 5.3 5.1 4,9 4,7 62 11.5 6.5 -0,0 41 72 8 1 Personal Income Growth 9,6 7,3 6,6 6.7 6,9 4.644,5 4.7414 4.8451 4.9681 5.0742 5.176.7 5.2801 Population (0001 5.405 7 5.517.1 5.620,0 5.729.8 5,848 4 25.618 28.180 30.496 34.685 42,053 45.103 51.205 Single-Family Permits 56.077 51.745 48.072 47.735 48,896 11.088 7,845 7.117 12.407 16.761 10.933 10.920 Multifamily Permits 14,224 5,771 6.559 6.669 7.743 104,8 1149 1227 1316 1345 135.7 143.0 Existing Home Price (SThs) 149,6 154,8 158,1 162.0 1667 14.646 14.424 21.408 28.158 41.118 28.508 28,292 Mortgage Onginations (SMil) 27.702 25.776 24.766 25.267 26.359 58.2 446 51.3 70,2 49.7 45.4 43,6 Net Migration (000) 624 50.4 55.6 61.6 622 11.651 11.394 13.661 15,055 18.844 20.087 27485 Personal Bankruptcies 1 3.408 16.040 16.607 16.810 17,890 ANALYSIS STRENGTHS _Significant trade and export links _Global leader in oil and gas lechnology _Affordable housing and low buSiness costs. .Favorable migration trends judt' l1early .!.l lllO 11('\\ PO\JllOI1" o\l'r lJll' Ill'" (1\\' \i'ilr". and "'1~~lllfHllnl (ol1....lrwtlllll jobs In 11:1' th'ar !"rIlL-\llhollgh !lw ..,.calc of HP's \'IH.'rg~ . '\)ldllSIOlll'\ the hlg~:t.st. ('Ilt'n;Y (Oll1jliilW'S h.l\ I' ll'l,'ll stt'lIdlh plO\\llIg IKKk flll'lr n'n'lll \\mdldll illid Iun:. fe('dllll: Us t'\IMHSjnn. (Hher n'u'lll ,1)"1'1('(1-. indud(' 111t'''''J Llllhun (,olden Pass I.r\<; II'nllinal,lllld (on"olidatillll of Clh.'lllll.iJh Illanu- I;I! lllrer I\LOS' 1 ....,. op('r,IIHllb mllOI ,dtlding d\I'[" I ~Olflh". Industt)', ~I.mul;\( llIf1ng ;wri\ll\ I.... ,,1111 l'\. ld:1II lllg. aHhuugh gn~\\th hlt... sIO\\l"d IlH'(1stlr- Irom lht' rapid P;li. t' ,'>('('11 (";trlkr tillS ~('ar. I( \'urdin~: tn 11)(' IH H P\II. f !iring growth in :1I,(!lufa(furin,~ ha~ ,tl<";f) ..;lo\\cd ('olltUrn'IHl\ ill i H I! , \"ilh payroll..; lan~dy flal ill tl1\' indllstr~ ,)\ 1'1' the P,lsf st\. Illonth<..;.1 iwre has hn'll a shill :11 II If'tunes \\jlhill llldlluf,K(Uring,Llllplo) l1Ienl III iiii' rt'ftmng and cht'IllIt"i1b induslri('s, \\hu.'h ildd Ill'l'n dO\\11 Ihrnugll tlH~ ('i.lrly lMrI oj thl>;' "l',if", 11.1;0.., :-.wgl'd d strong rOlllt'hl( l.. lJ1 !lu' past !\'\\ IHontl1s.'\l ,hI' ..;.d.IlW IIlHl', p.l~r()IJ.... in llhlll 1;1.1\ tnring mduslril':-', \\ IUt Ii dro\l'lnlJ glUH 111 IWI' rllit-. \1',lf, "'Udl il"; 1ll.ldllrwry m.ulIlLu IWillg, Ilil\(' '>Idllnl !ll lhe pa...! ft,,, months. 1111. l111pl'o\elllcnt 1I1 HH' rdining <lml c11t'lH1CdJo.. IHlu'tru's dho (':\pl.lIl1:>. lht' n'ccllt "'UI")..~I' 1Il <1\ 'T,I:~i' houri) ('drHIIl);S III Ilhllllll'atturillg, c\ 1,'11 tll\Jugh hour... \\orkt'd l"t'll1am 10\\. !lIC II0uslon cnmom)' "ill nmtinuc to bcn- dil in the ne~lr term from slrong: energy in~ {lll~try c.Kti\;ty ttlld ri.!)in~ lTitd(', Stead}' P()Pu~ l.lrion gl'oWlh\vill also help SUPPOl1 growlh in consunter services and ill th(' construl'lioll induslry, Pori and t.:onvcnlion tratTle in 1I0U \\ ill i1lso Iikcly pick up.lungcr tCrln. cominucd diversification of the Jnctro drC~\'s illdusnial srnlCturc (me! slill ill)()\"~ il\"~rage population ;..:.rowlh will ensun.' hcahhy L,<-~ononlk growlh, I It ll"s I'Cl'fOrlll'"Kc is cxpectcd 10 rank inlhc top quinlih.~ over Ihe forenlst horizon. Hdh.{'\/1 \'Iumk,u \11\'.'1111\.,. _.om) Rec.:enl Ilcrf{)rl11ann.~. '-..11"(1.1': .~:n'\\lh :1 I!H' 1I11Il....IlIlIl.t 111J(l11l~ IS Illl' ;lI"llt:.'i\ IL'I\i'l liH' stall'. (,ril\\ll1 lJl tlw IIll.It.() "",1 1:.1.... ;h 1 :,1;h lKu'lerati.'d III Ilw lhml {]lid;"1 ,Ii II':' thrnUl4Itlhi'lirsthaUotrlll'u',': IlwlIH'll' ,1["'(1 IS dt'itrly stili lH'rll'lltlfl~: II" HI: I !lll J; I t1n,~~ ,'j , 1 ':~ 1'.\.pluf.1I101l. pnx:.llId]i~ll ,ll:d 1'''.Jl\ ~linlllg t'l1Iplo\ IIII'll I , \\hl\ 11 :ll,I\! Ij,Hklwd 0:;1 in I hi.' fIr<..;! halt of Iltt' ~t''-lr. li;''-: ,',1'11 ....il.trpl-. ~i'~;iln 1I1 Ih(' pasl ft'\\ month....,! tlll,l! ,\ :iil'nl :.',t"Ci\', ,: 11),1... als.o ,IlTt'h'ri:lh'd m Ill!' Irdlj<"IH:'f;lliOllll1dl:',ln \\I1.lt ISmon', job W.O\\1 11 1111, 10000Iil-.l';\ 1(' n.\l....cd up further. Trade. TIll' I'orl 01 flnH'.I\~~1 ;-;'(I'[llh <In. IHHHlH'd Ihal lfadt' \(Jhllll,''- litillU;,:li 11,1' jll:!'1 Ihl\t' Ix.t..'!l rolJu....l !lIh \ I 'ill'. ,11:11,11"1' on Ll).' 1/1'1 oreak lhroll.v,h t<l~t Yt';,lt"" "Cl ~ I:,l. I fW op.,'ljJl1g of tht' hr....' ph.l...t, of lilt. Ilt",\ f:,;\ ("(JI:l.' ;11'1 l('nllll1allak tillS \ ('dl". ,111d li,t' port ( 111";(' lennlll,11 t..u'l~ 111':\1 ...umllll'! hd;, ;'I'I'P lriJdcal..q gnl\\ttJdrl\l'r ifl)1 1!lllllj''';Ji(>'11 in\\hok~.ll\'ll'ilth-and !J';1I1'-fll"',!1Jl)ll 1.....,lt ,HI:I\ gnJ\\mg. Totill tr;!ch' Illl\\o... Ii!:, 01 :,~jj ltll.' fit JI, ,,11.n nt,>ltHlIS <lislric! an' tll....IJ 11;) _" 0\\ ,,".i! !\to"t of tIllS tr,\{lt' i... ({jlI11!1>~ l'nlll '.....1.11 ill;,r "t'ls due III 1<ln~t' IIW<lSUn - It: \\,;' \1.1: I.... 10 IllOH' Il...l111porll1l1h ].1...1 \\ 1 11'11111 Ill" I'sl Cll",IIll 1101 . Investment. 'I ht'n:' lld\" 1\\(, n'( 1'11: .1:1 nOllJKt'nwnts tl1.1I \\lll 11,1\" ,"tll\\I' n1' t!:i:111 tl'rllldkrtsOl1llw!Hll l'I'JJl~,,;1\. IJH'l::...I\\,I~ lhe <lSslgnlllt'1l1 '1ll.Olkl1( '( 'II I It ,I :W\\ " \\ \ en tr<lrl to huild lln' 11t':\t ,;;~'llt'I,;II'111 "'P,lll !,I\d \dudt.,lht');>\ billion projl'(1 \\II! 1)\' lOllU:,'II'(] iIlIlOt:. and \\111 ,Hid 0\1') II ~1l.~~111\ ill reet job.. 10 tlH' !lIplnl ,II'I';j 11\'" 1!1l' l!\-'.l Ii\(' \ ('<If"'. !\lon' 11l1pOrr.IIHh.llll.... il::i!n I 1'1111'1 lhe ;{(TO"'p.H(' 1l\{IUsln III Ill' '1It'IIIIdro',1 ;lIld hrlngs 111111011" oj ,l{ldl1l()JI.il l,dn,tJ plll'lm' m.'nl dollars lu f If II . I'ht' st'{ond .UllllJll!l( l'!ll"! I ',"lllnh-!lLiL ,)J tllt'ft..(t'IlI('lwrg\ hooll\. f;l' Itllltllll1i"d hilllon t':\.p.m";'l(llllo II'> 11l1! (,' liPll'-., \\ Ii:. I '>'. iJ] WEAKNESSES 8 Competes with other important regional cenlers like Dallas and Atlanta 8 Still dependent on vofatife energy industry. CURRENT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS October 2006 Employment Growth (;.-~ change year ago. 3 roo MA . :~ FORECAST RISKS ~",~ f:~ ~~rr~~;:r1~rii~,", I rO:r, ~ g'" >><~ "~,, )~" ~"lF: &'K^"6:W W ~ '\ "I"P' Ie- UPSIDE . 011 companIes plow profits back Into new Investment. hinng. . Trade and distriblllion aCtlvIly throu~Jh the pOr1 garners new Investment DOWNSIDE . Potential terrorist allack on Houslon's energy facilities . High prices and tight supplies limit expi1nsion H1 energy acllvlty Moody's Ecor1Ofll)'.com. Inc. . www.oco(10Ilry,COf1l . hel~oconomy.com . Precis METRO AREA OVERVIEW 11-5 . . INDUSTRIAL DIVERSITY Into Houston. TX Number Median of Migrants Income Most or~'el::.Q fU -:, tOO "'" 000 0.56 0.40 0.'" EMPLOYMENT VOLATILITY DUE TO U.S. RELATIVE TO FLUCTUATIONS U.S. 100'1<. eo'l<. 60" 4~ 20% INet Migration 9,748 .5541 0% ...........,US .lhl.,US VA HOU . U S . TOP EMPLOYERS Shell Or! Company ExxonMobfl Corporallon Admrnlstaff Continental Airlines. Inc Hal1lt)Ufton Company McDonald's Corpora bon Un!'.' of iex,1s M 0 Anderson Cancer etf \'Val-Mart Stores. lne Dow Chemical Company Memorial Hermann Healthcare Sy$lem Tho Unlver~;jty of Texas Medical Branch HewleI1PaG".ar(~ Company Baylor CoUc.--ge of MedKlflc The Kroger Company The Melhodl5! HOSpital SystPril ATT Center P(:IIr11 Energy Baker Hughes SchILifl100fqHr (,Id The Home Depot lnc M(trr~11 Public Federal State Locat 27 .965 68,049 244,145 2005 18tXlO 16761 16.615 14.579 13.650 12.638 12,221 11.627 11.602 11013 9.000 8.000 7692 7675 7.362 6.962 6.300 6.000 5,900 5.900 Sector COMPARATIVE EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME % of Total Employment Average Annual Earnin9' HOU TX US HOU TX US Construction 7.2'X, 5.8% 5.5% S53,158 Manufacturing 9.0o,.~ 9.2% 10.7~!o S97,323 Durable 60.3% 63.6% 629% nd Nondurable 39JS-{! 36.4!Yo 37.1%) ruj T ransporlalion! Utilities 4.9% 4,21% 3,7% $117,736 57? .7} S5.L.~2i Wholesale Trade 52~in 4.90/1) 4_3~';) S74.465 ~J 1 Sfj2,4 Retail Trade 10,40/(> 11.4~'o 11 AOlo S28.098 ',is 526.I<i.: Information 1.5iJ/r, 2_3~"o 2.3% $66,351 ,'11 S7~.l1:7; FinancIal AcltvltJes 5.goifi 6.3~h 6.1\'/0 S53,322 ,.47 16 S51 'or) Prof and Bus Services 14,Z% 119f% 12.6{~i(l S56,516 54'. S4S.1 ,~ 1t Edue and Heallh Services 11.1%) 12.2% 13.0% $42,99:, "'1 539 i ':" Leisure and Hosp Services 8,80/0 9.3% 9.60,'0 S18,951 $1/ 519 ',1'1 Other Services 4,0""0 3.6% 4.0'}" $23,261 S~! 1 $'n '14', Government 14.5~"Q 17.3% 16.3'}o $49,565 ~,-l / S53 I' , SoureDS Porcont of 101a} employment . MCl(.xJ,,'s Econornycom & BLS AV(:{.1gt~ f)[;'\ HOUSE PRICES 300 250 200 150 ,-..----- 100 50 87 90 93 96 00 03 -HQU - U.S $O(lfC(! OFHEO, 198/Q1=1oo. NS/l to MOODY'S RATING COUNTY Aa 1 LEADING INDUSTRIES NAles Industry Employee'iOOO) 06 GVSL 7221 7222 5613 6221 5413 2360 4451 5617 2111 2382 2370 6211 4529 2131 GUYI:r' Arr.hlleclur,-'l! Con"'llJ<:tlLJrl (A Gm;:.:'.!!" StUll':; Ser.'IU~" to BL,iCII1Q<' 0,1 G;bb:II';I(.II'.J Buildlnq H<1,'J'/~' ,-,fI" lr'g" Off~cc,;; Pr)~,:,'Ci<1wl Olh{>r Ge()..~r,li f\l,erch.',' Support AdNlla:'s lor Hlgh-lccn As '" a'tot,1 Sources' BLS Mco(xr,':S Net Migration. HOU /5.000 30,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2002 2003 2004 2005 Domestic 26,920 8.496 7,767 9.457 Foreign 43,304 41.244 37,625 34.187 Total 70~224 49.740 45,392 43,644 ,,,rCt::-~ !RS ~[Op! Bureau 20()!) )122 l5.2 1':'92 G24 56.7 537 .\6.5 .a7 39.6 39.0 36.1 J4.9 ]3,4 32.9 303 PER CAPITA INCOME 86.4 36 . HOU Iiil TX . US Bureau of EconomIc AnalYSIS 2004 Moody',-. [conomy.,olll. inc. . ,','ww.e<:onomy.corll . helpt!\ocooomy.com. Precis METRO AREA OVERVIEW 11-6 Moderating Gas Prices Will Support Consumer Spending 3.5 3.0 Retail gasohne pnce "''''' (rJ1 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 , .0.5 Retail employment % change year ago IL) .1.0 04 05 06 Global Impetus Drives Chemicals' Resurgence in Houston 40 30 20 10 o .10 .20 03 04 05 06 Energy Exploration Surges Aller Early Year Pause 80 800 78 Texas ng counl (R) 750 76 700 74 650 72 - 600 70 550 68 500 66 450 04 05 06 Houston Houston Housing Is Still Very Strong 300 16(:1 7.0 Soorce: T ex8S Real Estate Cenler 280 5.0 260 Month" (:XC(~~:;S Ilwcntory (R} /~"'- \ 6.0 15(" 6.5 240 220 14',' 200 180 n. 5.5 160 140 12" 04 05 06 1.0 lilt' III Jl LrJUSIl:;< Jll<lr"el is in good shape. l1H'n' IlllS been SOlin Illr~d('r;tl)(l]i III IhmH' sales :--.ioc(' 11ll' ~umn1Cr, \\hich h~ls k(1 111,111 IIPlld.. III 111\\.;:IIH.II..... of un..old hOlJ]es aIld illl1odcrdli()Jl in IlO!!I'> pncc;.....\ild \\"1, pnces rernain high ,Iud ill\l'nlnncs 10\\, h~ 1))',1':'11(,11 stdntl,lrd..., P~'rmH iSSWH1U' is also up strongly lor the \ \',11 "'ll~~;;I,....t In", Ill',dlll\ dt'lnand dlld lHIJldll1~: dell\ It\ In 11)(' llH.'lnl ,In,',I, \\ 1111 111;> 101';.11 l',{jll()lll~ ('~pc(t('d 10 post slc4;td~ growth in 111(' u',lr IvnL, 11" ({.~riOt)~ 1'01' hOllsmg ilt'li\it~ n'm\lins solid, lilt' ,dHII....tdll\ \' 01 LilHI ,lli{ll'.lS(' of <1('\('101'111('111 wil!lll;lIntain II ("Piling oil IpiLl"'''' pnl I' 0.5 0.0 .0.5 -1.0 .1.5 Uptick in Delinquency Rate Reflects Katrina's Effects -2.0 4.5 -, .2.5 4.< .3.0 4' 6 -3.5 3.9 37 3.(' Pf,:r caplta income growth d,;mge year ago (R) Slillr;~8 Moody's Econotny.com 3, L.SI Delinquency rate, % S volume IL) Source: CreditForocastcom o 27 03 {).: 05 06 itt!...UlHel I ()lHl!lllllh tlfe broadly jloSltl\/' 1J) Hot, Lstllnatt'd p\'I \ dlllla lJj{IJJll~' .r!!\\ 111 III the llIetro iHt';;! (ontmllt'd to gr()\\ ,11 d"; ,ll n.kl':llll1g 11;1 IhrOll;,:h Ihe flrsl hiliI' of thIS )('dr. Ilw (h'II!"'jllt'llt ~ 1".11\' 11,1' tl\1..('(1 up Itlls ~e;lJ'. hut lIti... IS .111 itrll1'icial r('hlililld IrOl!1 Ilh' ',ii.l!P pust'''-itlrina tllp ill ddinqu('lH.ies III OW Jill!: 111 qll,tl'tl'f ',I 1<1:--.1 \ \'dl', (.lIIlSUlllt'r spending IlHHI4'raled t hrou,!.dl ll'lt ',I,lllltl'Wr ,I" lng!i ',.1:--. IJI'I('I':-' took. lheir loll. but "Jwnding has ,drl ,lih n:"'1)111),lnl f)(J'11I\cly In 10\\('1' ).~.:t<.; pnn's in lht' past I\\n J:IiII)~l1" Icm ,,'liOt;:, i' 1)/1 honw ('qull~ \\llhdra\\i11 and ,,>{(',\(I\ l~tlL'.", prH c' :,.11:1" ]11,';111 lo(-al 40nStlllH'f'S lhl\{. 10\\ ('\:IW'iUH' to d I1lHi -,In~;'rl'l~l!,,'d llqIJ!dH\ (rllllch. Moody's Economy.com. Inc. . www.oconomy.com . hel~oconomy.cotn . Precis METRO AREA OVERVIEW 11-7 TRANSPORTATION Airports The Houston Airport System (HAS) includes the Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH), the William P. Hobby Airport (Hobby) and Ellington Field, a civil/military airport. The HAS recorded more than 51.1 million in total passenger activity during calendar year 2006 and is the sixth largest airport system in the world. Bush Intercontinental Airport is located 23 miles north of Houston's CBD and is the City's primary airport facility. Houston has become one of the major centers for international air transportation in the southwest; the airport has five runways and five passenger terminals and provides service to international, interstate and intrastate markets. Bush Intercontinental Airport is the eighth busiest airport in the U.S. in terms of passenger activity and as an international passenger gateway. Growth at Bush Intercontinental was almost 9% during 2006 and is projected to more than double by 2017, an average annual increase of about 4%. Similar growth is expected for air cargo activity. The following table illustrates the historic airport passenger and cargo activity at Bush Intercontinental Airport over the period 2000 through 2006. Bush Intercontinental Airport Passenger and Cargo Activity 2000 to 2006 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 CAC* 35,251,372 34,708,723 33,908,310 34,208,165 36,506,116 39,714,818 42,549,018 3.2% 1.6% -1.5% -2.3% 0.9% 6.7% 8.8% 604,375 571,939 604,393 728,020 768,508 753,257 791,592 4.6% -5.4% 5.7% 20.5% 5.6% -2.0% 5.1% .CAC = Compound Annual Change Source: Department of Aviation, Houston Airport System Bush Intercontinental Airport recently completed a $400 million International Services Expansion Program. These improvements include the construction of a new runway and taxiways, the expansion of existing terminal facilities and terminal upgrades. Terminal D is scheduled for a $2 million renovation in the near future. William P. Hobby Airport (Hobby) is located approxirnately seven miles southeast of downtown and 20 miles west of the subject hotel site. The terminal building has three concourses with a total of 31 gates. Hobby has eight scheduled passenger airlines with non-stop or direct service to over 65 cities throughout the U.S. Southwest Airlines is the airport's main carrier and accounts for more than 80% of the total passengers. AREA OVERVIEW 11-8 Hobby Airport also maintains a major general aviation operation including six fixed based operators and several hundred corporate jets. Hobby Airport saw a decrease in passenger traffic from 2001 to 2003 due to the national economic recession, the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the local economic downturn resulting from the demise of Enron. However, strong passenger growth was recorded in 2004. Hobby Airport also experienced 3.6% growth in passenger activity through October 2006. Cargo activity declined due to the downturn in the high technology sector and energy industries between 1999 and 2002. Since 2003, there has been significant growth in the cargo sector due in part to oilfield and engineering cargo. This increase should continue as the economy improves and the oil services sector increases. Historic passenger and cargo volumes for Hobby are shown in the following table. William P. Hobby Airport Passenger and Cargo Activity 2000 to 2006 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 CAC* 9,105,514 8,637,150 8,035,727 7,803,330 8,290,559 8,257,159 8,549,289 -1.0% -5.1% -7.0% -2.9% 6.2% -0.4% 3.5% 13,963 11,884 11,768 12,625 14,178 15,304 18,625 4.9% -14.9% -1.0% 7.3% 12.3% 7.9% 21.7% .CAC = Compound Annual Change Source: Department of Aviation, Houston Airport System Southwest Airlines plans to maintain Houston as one of its focus cities and is looking to serve new markets from Hobby. To accomrnodate these expansion plans, Hobby has begun a capital improvement program that includes the relocation and expansion of two taxiways, phased reconstruction of the concourses and portions of the terminal, and upgrade of one runway. Port of Houston The Port of Houston is one of the busiest ports in the U.S. in terms of total tonnage and the busiest port in terms of foreign tonnage due to the high volumes of liquid bulk (oil) that is shipped into Houston for processing. The Port of Houston is a man-made port that has 25 miles of public and private port facilities. The Port provides more than 53,000 direct jobs in the Houston area. The City of La Porte is located adjacent to the Port of Houston. AREA OVERVIEW 11-9 Highways Highway transportation systems and ease of access can significantly affect demand for hotel accommodations. Houston and its surrounding areas are well served by major highways that provide good regional access. 1-10 is the major easUwest highway connecting Houston to Louisiana in the east and San Antonio and New Mexico to the west. Interstate 45 (1-45) connects the city to Galveston in the south and Dallas to the north. U.S. Highway 59 (US 59) runs from Brownsville in southwest Texas to Texarkana in northwest Texas. Houston is encircled by two ring roads, the Interstate 610 (1-610) and Beltway 8 (Sam Houston Tollway); which connect the major interstates and highways. The largest roadway construction project in Texas is the expansion of 1-10 in West Houston from 1-610 to Grand Parkway, proximate to the subject site. In total, there will be 24 lanes including frontage roads and shoulder lanes along this 21 mile stretch of freeway. Completion is scheduled for the end of 2008. The busiest section of Interstate 610 passes through the "Uptown Houston" commercial area located between 1-10 and US 59, which is currently undergoing a major reconstruction project. OFFICE MARKET Following 9/11, the collapse of Enron, corporate layoffs and national and local economic setbacks, the Houston office market suffered an increase in vacancy rates. However, vacancy rates began declining in 2005 and are below 2001 levels as of the end of 2006. For the first time since 2001, rental rates are starting to increase again with Class A rates exceeding 2001 levels. Houston office market data is presented in the following table. Houston Office Market 142,741,647 143,957,209 176,020,342 178,982,587 177,882,370 179,245,857 66,414,950 66,847,989 86,353,361 86,471,939 86,980,155 87,540,457 9.66% 12.67% 13.11 % 14.59% 12.46% 8.40% $23.86 $22.01 $21.47 $20.93 $20.60 $24.02 Source: CB Richard Ellis In downtown, the amount of sublease space available is falling as companies become more confident and expand or reclaim space that had previously been on the market. In the suburban areas, the excess of sublease space will continue to fall and occupancy will increase as the market strengthens based on steady economic growth and job creation. The largest concentration of office space is located in downtown Houston followed by the West Loop/Galleria, Westchase and the Energy Corridor market areas. Downtown revitalization continues and the area is expanding its appeal as a business location. AREA OVERVIEW II -10 CONVENTION CENTER The City of Houston operates the George R. Brown Convention Center, which completed a major expansion in January 2004. The expanded center now offers seven exhibit halls with a total of 871,520 square feet. At the same time, the 1,203-room Hilton Americas Hotel opened, adjacent to and connected by crosswalks to the Convention Center. The hotel serves primarily as a headquarters hotel to the Convention Center and this has enabled the Houston Convention & Visitors Bureau (CVB) to aggressively market Houston as a major convention destination. These expanded facilities will continue to allow the Houston CVB to attract more conventions and also some larger conventions that would not have considered Houston in the past. The following table shows the historic growth in convention bookings. Room nights booked decreased in 2002 and 2003 due to the effects of 9/11 on travel and convention activity. Historical George R. Brown Convention Center Bookings 166,466 188,425 134,730 121,777 229,854 221,421 224,019 13.2% -28.5% -15.3% 88.7% -3.7% 1.2% 3,871 4,596 4,2tO 4,199 4,597 3,630 3,500 18.7% -8.4% -0.3% 9.5% -21.0% -3.6% Source: George R. Brown Convention Center During the 2004 fiscal year, there was an 88.7% increase in room nights booked. This is primarily attributed to two major factors, The increased capacity afforded by the completion of the headquarters hotel and expanded convention center allowed for more and larger groups. Also, two events in particular drew significant room nights and national attention that year. Houston hosted the Super Bowl in 2004 and the George R. Brown Convention Center hosted a related event called the NFL Experience. This was a consumer trade show open to the public and it generated attendance of 118,203 and 75,000 room nights. The Major League Baseball All-Star event was also held at the George R. Brown in 2004. It generated 80,000 in attendance and 10,717 related room nights. AREA OVERVIEW 11-11 It should also be noted that convention activity previously booked for fiscal year 2005/2006 was canceled due to emergency use of the George R. Brown Convention Center for one month by evacuees displaced by Hurricane Katrina. During the month of September, 23 events were cancelled. Of those, four were rebooked and 19 events did not rebook. In all, the convention center's business lost due to Katrina equates to 78,711 in attendance and 21,915 room nights. Without the Super Bowl and All-Star Baseball room nights (85,717), 2004 room nights would be 144,137 which would have represented an 18.3% increase for the year. These two events also brought significant positive national attention to Houston from the media and fueled convention bookings for that year and for future years. In 2005, room nights would have increased 53.6%, if compared to 2004 numbers net of the Super Bowl and All-Star Baseball effect. Furthermore, if business hadn't been lost due to Katrina (21,915), then 2006 room nights would have been 245,934 and that would have been an 11.1 % increase over the prior year. The numbers net of the Super Bowl, All Star Baseball event and Katrina, suggest continuing growth in room nights booked since the expansion of the convention center. Bookings for 2007 and beyond illustrate Houston's increased capacity for more groups and for larger groups. The numbers also reflect that the largest events typically book farther in advance. Definite Bookings cullliilYt lIHIln.:!2::', Current Potential Bookings Number Room Number :ji r_ I; I:; Room Number Room of Room Nights of , Roo it Nights of Room Nights Year Events Nights per Event EV~~~,!I!ia!Jil '-" Event Events Nights per Event 2007 68 266,126 3,914 19 34,971 1,841 87 301,097 3,461 2008 36 204,002 5,667 48 178,673 3,722 84 382,675 4,556 2009 17 117,905 6,936 53 364,203 6,872 70 482,108 6,887 2010 10 123,619 12,362 58 356,086 6,139 68 479,705 7,054 2011 9 110,295 12,255 44 281,137 6,389 53 391,432 7,386 2012 8 80,463 10,058 27 188,140 6,968 35 268,603 7,674 Total 148 902,410 6,097 249 1,403,210 5,635 397 2,305,620 5,808 Source: George R. Brown Convention Center FtC f B k' f5 b 2006 The Houston CVB predicts that it will increase the number of city-wide conventions by two per year and could accommodate as many as 20 city-wide conventions per year. With the current maximum room block of 3,500 rooms in the downtown area, conventions will begin to overflow to other areas of Houston in 2007. TOURISM The area's leisure and tourism base is vast and very diverse. Houston has been undergoing a revitalization that began in the late 1990s. Several projects that have been completed include Minute Maid Park (Houston Astros), Reliant Stadium (Houston Texans), Toyota Center (Houston Rockets) and the Hobby Center for the Performing Arts. AREA OVERVIEW II -12 The light rail system, which was completed in early 2004, connects Reliant Stadium, the Texas Medical Center, the Museum District and the downtown area. The Museum District offers 16 museums and art galleries and one outdoor theater. Other attractions in the greater Houston area include the Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, Battleship Texas, San Jacinto Monument, and Galveston Bay, all located proximate to the subject site. TEXAS MEDICAL CENTER The Texas Medical Center (TMC) Campus, which covers over 740 acres and encompasses more than 100 permanent buildings, is located about five miles south of downtown Houston to which it connects via the new light rail system. The TMC is the world's largest medical complex and the medical, academic and research institutions of the TMC are Houston's largest employers. Overall there are over 60,000 employees in 14 hospitals which accommodate more than 5.1 million patient visits to the complex each year. More than 90,000 people attend classes at the various institutions in the TMC, which include the Baylor College of Medicine, the University of Texas System Cancer Center and the Texas Heart Institute. There are currently more than $714 million in medical research activities at the TMC. MUSEUM DISTRICT The Houston Museum District is located one mile north of the TMC on the light rail line, which also connects it to downtown. Thanks to the Museum District, Houston has become an internationally recognized arts center. The district is home to 16 museums. According to the Houston Museum District Association and individual member institutions, the Museum District is in the midst of a massive expansion, worth more than $100 million in cultural development. Over 5 million people visit the top five museums alone and some museums have experienced an almost tenfold increase in visitor numbers over the past two decades. A Houston area map illustrating the location of the subject property is provided on the following page. AREA OVERVIEW II -13 o . .--- @. ~ c;j1..... ... ~-,~'*"'" .' , HOUSTON AREA MAP cw " , , .AldN 8 \\ \:' .Angleton . .......ble [@ Ooverft'.lf 0 a__ oc.n.nnel".ii!\v CD' fl Ii .Galeftil Park oPasad~na .Deer Par, II .South H'Mlf" La Porte .PeartlWld o F"nendso\"{)od G ol,"Z1q\.l~ ~,ty oAlvin ..llaytown * . Texas Clty .~i~ fill . -' .,~/ '.... .~110ll AREA OVERVIEW II - 14 LA PORTE AREA OVERVIEW The primary market area for the proposed Sylvan Beach hotel is defined as the area bounded by the Port of Houston on the north, Port Road and Bay Area Boulevard on the south, Interstate Highway 45 (1-45) on the west and Galveston Bay on the east. The three cities that have the greatest influence on the development of the area are La Porte, Pasadena and Deer Park. This area is economically driven by the Port of Houston, which is home to the $15 billion petrochemical complex - the largest in the nation and the second largest in the world, The Houston Ship Channel houses 40% of the nation's petrochemical manufacturing plants with the capacity to produce 3,853 million barrels of refined petroleum products per day. Literally hundreds of companies that produce and support the production of these produCts and the activities of the port are located in the Battleground Industrial District north of State Highway 225 (SH 225) along the port and in the Bayport Industrial District south of Fairmont Parkway adjacent to the La Porte city limits. The market area is also a destination for important Texas historical sites, including the San Jacinto Monument and the Battleship Texas. Other leisure attractions include the Norwegian cruise line, which sails out of the Barbours Cut in La Porte; Galveston Bay; and Sylvan Beach, the preferred site for the proposed hotel. The primary market area is currently undergoing unprecedented economic development at the Port of Houston, which is stimulating both business and leisure activity, as follows: Business Activity A series of events that occurred in the past few years have created an increase in activity at the Port of Houston. The combination of labor problems and congestion at West Coast ports caused shippers and distributors to seek alternative routes. Houston, being located in the center of the US with the sixth largest port in the world, has become a major beneficiary of this change in the shipping industry. Additionally, the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita has caused an impact on transportation routes throughout the Gulf of Mexico and increased the amount of building materials needed for reconstruction that is coming through the Port of Houston. Both WalMart and Home Depot have chosen the Port of Houston as a major distribution center for their products from all over the world, especially from Asia. WalMart recently opened a two million-square foot distribution center in Bay town, approximately 10 miles from the proposed hotel site, which will eventually expand to four million square feet. AREA OVERVIEW 11-15 While the Port of Houston ranks first in US foreign tonnage and second in total tonnage largely because of the huge volumes of oil and petrochemical products, it is not in the top 50 ports in container traffic. With the existing Barbours Cut container terminal operating at 150% of capacity, the Port of Houston recently opened Phase I of the Bayport Container Terminal, which will enable the port to increase its share of the growing container distribution world market. Bayport is located approximately four miles south of the proposed hotel site. The Port of Houston predicts that its container volume will increase 11 % per year for the next five years. Phase I of the Bayport Container Terminal, which opened in February 2007, includes one container berth and 65-acres of container storage space. The $1.2 billion Bayport Container Terminal will be developed over a 15 to 20-year timeline, Upon completion, it will have seven berths and a 378-acre container storage yard with a maximum capacity of 2.3 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units). Bayport is expected to generate more than 2,000 jobs in its first year of operations and nearly 10,000 jobs within five years. In order to support the enormous increase in container activity generated by the Bayport Container Terminal, large warehouse distribution centers are being developed throughout the market area, as indicated in the following table. AREA OVERVIEW II -16 Warehouse/Distribution Centers Currently Under Development 1:- '~Und.~ ~~~~r Total qonstrJClonl'! Development Name of Project ,_~. ~{Sq.FJ~~.. (Sq.Ft.) Port Crossing Commerce Center 600,000 4,000,000 Underwood Business Park 900,000 3,000,000 Republic Distribution Center 300,000 3,000,000 Bayport North Industrial Park I 565,000 565,000 Bayport North Industrial Park II 740,000 Interport Distribution Center 1,300,000 Park 225 690,000 1,200,000 Cedar Crossing Business Park 900,000 Highway 225 & Miller Cut Off 150,000 300,000 Williamsport Industrial Center 210,000 210,000 Vantage-Cedar Crossing 129.500 129,500 Total 3,544,500 15,344,500 Source: Stream Realty There is currently 3.5 million square feet of warehouse/distribution space under construction. As the Bayport Container Terminal is built out and the demand increases, these projects can be expanded to include more than 15 million square feet of space. The Port Crossing Commerce Center, Underwood Business Park and Bayport North Industrial Park are located within the La Porte city limits. The Port Crossing Commerce Center is a 300-acre development located within the City of La Porte's Tax Increment Reinvestment Zone. This project is located on State Highway 146 (SH 146) just three miles from the Bayport Container Terminal and two miles from the subject hotel site, Leisure Activity Three projects currently under development will transform the primary market area into a leisure destination. These projects include Project Stars, the Bayport Cruise Terminal and the redevelopment of Sylvan Beach. AREA OVERVIEW 11.17 Project Stars is a collaborative effort of 15 cities located in east Harris County to revitalize the aesthetic appeal of the area while creating a living museum of Texas history. Conceived by the Economic Alliance Port Houston Region's Quality of Life Task Force and endorsed by Harris County Precinct 2 Commissioner Sylvia Garcia, Project Stars will include landscape beautification projects, historic murals and artwork on buildings and petrochemical tanks, redevelopment of historic landmarks, "Star Icons" along historic roadways, historic markers and historic tours of the area. Project Stars was launched in March 2006 with the formation of the San Jacinto Texas Historic District. To date, 26 historic locations have been identified as Stars with a development plan for each location. Filming of the historic scenes and development of the artwork will begin in February 2007 with the official announcement of the project scheduled for San Jacinto Day, April 21, 2007. Tour packages will be developed with the Bayport Cruise Terminal to offer historic tours of the area to cruise ship passengers. Project Stars is expected to be completed over a five-year period. The Economic Alliance Port Houston Region commissioned Avalanche Consulting to perform an economic impact study regarding the impact of Project Stars on Harris County Precinct 2. The results of the study were published in November 2006, as follows: Forecas",d Edih"l!i1c ''''11f of Project ~rs ~,,~ 0'> ~""'" ~_ Direct Impact Indirect Impact Total Impact Construction Phase Impact Construction Expenditures $15,750,000 $20,868,750 $36,618,750 Jobs 158 208 366 Income $5,530,000 $7,327,250 $12,857,250 Project Stars Impact Estimated Spending $24,871,550 $29,845,860 $54,717,410 Estimated Jobs Created 100 170 270 Estimated Income Impact $3,442,000 $2,805,000 $6,247,000 Source: Avalanche Consulting Building the 26 Stars will generate several hundred construction jobs and nearly $40 million in spending. Project Stars is estimated to generate almost 300 permanent jobs and $55 million in spending. As far as economic development, Project Stars is expected to improve the region's physical image, generate a positive community spirit, place Harris County in a national spotlight, and draw new people into the region. Two major historic sites, which are important elements of Project Stars, are in the process of redevelopment: the San Jacinto Monument and Battleground and the Battleship Texas. The 570-foot San Jacinto Monument recently completed an $11 million exterior renovation and a $1.2 million upgrade of its elevator and fire sprinkler system, The San Jacinto Monument houses the San Jacinto Museum of History, a theater showing the history of the battle of San Jacinto, an observation deck at the top of the monument and a gift shop. AREA OVERVIEW 11.18 The Texas Parks and Wildlife Department has received $12.5 million in bonds to re- landscape the San Jacinto Battlefield, where Texas won its independence from Mexico in 1836, to its original topography based on historic records. This project will include historic markers, historically accurate native plants and tours of the grounds. The marsh lands around the battlefield were recently replanted and a three-mile trail with birding stations is in the process of completion. The Battleship Texas is the last existing battleship that participated in World War I and II. In 1948, it was turned into a memorial museum and is anchored along the Houston Ship Channel adjacent to the San Jacinto Monument and Battleground. The Battleship Texas is in dire need of repair. Bonds totaling $12.5 million have been issued to apply toward its redevelopment. Efforts are underway to raise additional funds and to remove the battleship from the water to a dry berth. The redevelopment project is estimated to be completed by 2010. Bayport Cruise Terminal is a cruise ship terminal that is currently being developed by the Port of Houston adjacent to the Bayport Container Terminal, approximately four miles south of the proposed hotel site. This terminal would take the place of the existing cruise ship terminal at Barbours Cut. When the first terminal opens by the beginning of 2008, it will increase the number of cruise lines from one to four on a weekly basis. There are two additional terminals that are estimated to open in 2015 and 2021, respectively. Estimated passenger activity for the Bayport Cruise Terminal is presented in the following table. Bayport Cruise Ship Terminal Estimated Passenger Activity "'If ~11 J~;" m of ~ ': p ITS Cevelopment TimellllLloJ,,"-_E Terminal 1 - Completed 2008 2008 2009 - 2014 286,000 550,000 Terminal 2 - Completed 2015 2015 2016 - 2020 875,000 1,125,000 Terminal 3 - Completed 2021 2021 1,700,000 Source: Port of Houston AREA OVERVIEW 11-19 The existing cruise ship terminal at Barbours Cut accommodated approximately 90,000 passengers in 2006. When the first Bayport Cruise Terminal opens in 2008, it is estimated to generate 286,000 passengers, increasing to 550,000 in 2009. The second terminal will increase the capacity to 1.125 million passengers and the third terminal will enable the Bayport facilities to accommodate up to 1.7 million passengers. The Bayport Cruise Terminal is also considering the development of an adjacent 40-acre tract into an entertainment venue. Sylvan Beach is a 22-acre Harris County park located on Galveston Bay in La Porte. The history of Sylvan Beach dates back to 1892 when it was set aside as a city park. Over the years, it has been a popular entertainment venue with big band entertainers, dances and beauty contests. In 1956, the Pavilion was built next to the bay with a 9,800-square foot ballroom that includes a large dance floor and big band stage. In recent years, it has become a popular local area park for community activities, family entertainment and Pavilion events. Sylvan Beach is an important leisure destination in east Harris County. However, the Pavilion is in need of repair, the beach has eroded and the park needs to be redeveloped. Comrnissioner Sylvia Garcia is developing a master plan for the County Park area which could include extensive landscaping, seawall promenade, reestablished beach, playground and skate park. As one of the 26 Stars associated with Project Stars, Sylvan Beach is expected to bring economic development to Harris County Precinct 2, as indicated by the Economic Impact Study mentioned above. The City of La Porte leases a five-acre tract within the Sylvan Beach Park, which includes the Pavilion. The City currently rnanages the operation of the Pavilion. Although other bayfront sites have been considered, this tract of land is the preferred site for the proposed Sylvan Beach hotel due to its connection to Project Stars, the redevelopment of Sylvan Beach and the La Porte Main Street projects. A La Porte area neighborhood map showing the location of the subject property is provided on the following page. , c " ~ .... .9 '/"}1 ~ OJ i\,. .... ,j! g' ':"- ~ f-'-~': u ! jJ ~ .f ~.-/ ~,.~;(/ i! ~ . . i!'~"'V'> ...... , D.. <( ::!: c o o J: 0::: o m J: <.:) W z <( w 0::: <( w ~ o ~ I' ..J '0 3m o:so ocnE ~~.!1! alECl lD ~ l, "- Ii ~I ;' ~~" I"~ "{ \ \ -<"'. "w.'.... "'"\' ~ In j ~', . ~ t ~:::,..tO ;c lD 0) B .le .. 10' al c:: .9 lI) Cl) > n; CD (ij :s f/) -5U t: .C t~ 00 c. >- al lD .c u o . c:J 1. j t:: & @.5 c ., ~ i . ',>'f ~:\1 f?':..... -=a:: ;;) AREA OVERVIEW II . 21 CONCLUSION Houston is posting healthy growth, driven by the strong energy sector. The engineering and oil service companies will continue to benefit from reconstruction contracts in Iraq and continued diversification of the metro area's industrial structure and the above average population growth will ensure healthy overall growth over the forecast horizon. Based on economic growth rates in Houston, a positive economic environment for the hospitality industry is estimated over the foreseeable future. The magnitude of the Port of Houston and petrochemical industry coupled with the recent increase in business and leisure activity in the primary market area appears to support the need for an upscale, full-service hotel. SECTION III PROPERTY DESCRIPTION PKF Consulting PROPERTY DESCRIPTION 111-1 LOCATION The preferred site for the proposed Sylvan Beach Hotel is located in the Sylvan Beach Harris County Park on Galveston Bay in La Porte, Texas. The subject site is a five-acre tract, which is leased by the City of La Porte, within the larger 22-acre park. Currently located on the proposed hotel site is the Sylvan Beach Pavilion, which is a popular venue for wedding receptions, quincenaros and local banquets. The Pavilion has been damaged by storms, age and erosion and is in need of repair. (Photographs of Sylvan Beach Park and the subject site are presented in Addendum A.) Although there are other sites along the Galveston Bay that could be considered for the proposed hotel, the Sylvan Beach site is preferred because it would enable the hotel to be incorporated into the redevelopment of the Sylvan Beach Park. Plans for the park could include extensive landscaping, a seawall promenade, reestablished beach, playground and skate park. Since Sylvan Beach is one of the 26 Project Stars, a proposed hotel on Sylvan Beach would contribute to the economic development of the entire Precinct 2. Additionally, La Porte has been designated as a Main Street City. By locating the proposed hotel on Sylvan Beach, it could stimulate the redevelopment of Main and San Jacinto streets into a landscaped gateway into Sylvan Beach. No other site presents these possibilities. SITE DESCRIPTION Visibility The proposed hotel would be developed within Sylvan Beach on the shores of Galveston Bay. Therefore, it would be a destination location which would benefit from historic signage on SH 146, approximately two miles from the site. The proposed Sylvan Beach Hotel would be very visible to boat traffic along Galveston Bay. Signage We recommend signage to be placed in appropriate locations on traffic corridors leading to the property, including SH 146 and SH 225. Access Primary access to the subject site is by auto. The site is easily accessible traveling north/south on SH 146, which connects the La Porte area to Houston to the north via SH 225 and to Clear Lake, Kemah and Galveston Island to the south. North and south bound traffic on SH 146 would take the Fairmont Parkway exit and travel eastbound approximately two miles to Sylvan Beach. The City of La Porte would like to develop Main and San Jacinto streets into a landscaped gateway to Sylvan Beach in the future. There is also potential to develop a Galveston Bay taxi boat that would connect Sylvan Beach to various points along the bay down to Kemah in the south, PROPERTY DESCRIPTION 111-2 Surrounding Area The subject site is well-located in relation to both business and leisure demand. The new Bayport Container Terminal and the Bayport Cruise Ship Terminal are located just four mile south of the proposed hotel site. The Bayport Industrial District is located about three miles west of the site along Fairmont Parkway, while the Battleground Industrial District along the Port of Houston is located only five to 10 miles northwest of the site along SH 225. To the north and south of Sylvan Beach along the Galveston Bay, there are several sites that could be developed into future waterfront projects. The proposed hotel would be located approximately two miles from the Bay Forest Golf Course, which ranks in the top 10 municipal courses in the Houston area, and four miles from the Houston Yacht Club. The San Jacinto Monument and Battleship Texas and the majority of the 26 Project Star sites are located within approximately 10 miles northwest of the subject property. The Johnson Space Center, Clear Lake and the Kemah Boardwalk are located about 10 miles south of the site along SH 146, while Galveston Island is approximately 40 miles to the south. RECOMMENDED FACILITIES The proposed Sylvan Beach hotel should be designed as a 250-room branded, upscale, full-service hotel. There appears to be a large amount of hotel and meeting space demand that is leaving the market area because of the lack of an upscale, full-service hotel. The subject property will be affiliated with a nationally recognized franchise to take advantage of its national marketing program, extensive reservation system and frequent traveler program. The hotel should be designed to complement the master plan for the redevelopment of Sylvan Beach and to reflect its historical heritage. The hotel needs to be oriented toward Galveston Bay with scenic views from the lobby, meeting rooms, food and beverage facilities and guestrooms. Since the Sylvan Beach Pavilion has sentimental value to the community, we recommend that the ballroom in the proposed hotel be called "The Pavilion" and be designed with a similar shape and view of Galveston Bay to provide a link with the local community. We recommend that the site be highly landscaped to maximize green space. Parking should be developed on the first two floors of the hotel to minimize surface parking and to elevate the hotel for views of Galveston Bay. We recommend 15,000 square feet of meeting space with a 7,500-square foot ballroom (The Pavilion). Since the hotel will be a popular location for wedding receptions, quincenaros and banquets, the ballroom will need to accommodate up to 500 attendees. We also recommend a smaller junior ballroom and numerous breakout rooms to accommodate corporate trade shows and meetings. An executive boardroom is included to attract corporate executive meeting demand. In addition to the hotel food and beverage facilities, we recommend that an area adjacent to PROPERTY DESCRIPTION 111-3 the hotel be leased to a signature restaurant with an outside patio facing Galveston Bay. The hotel should provide spa services and a fitness center, as well as concierge and valet services to reflect the upscale nature of the hotel. It is important to provide shuttle service to Hobby Airport and area attractions. Based on our analysis of the market and the facilities at comparable hotels, the recommended facilities are summarized in the following table. Property [j~ptionC'1 ""r~' ~ Proposed Sylvan laCh ~., I ~. .1I!lli Type of Hotel Number of Guestrooms Meeting Space Total "Pavilion" Ballroom Junior Ballroom Meeting Rooms Board Room Food & Beverage Amenities Potential Brands CONCLUSION Branded, Upscale, Full-Service Hotel 250 15,000 7,500 3,000 4,000 500 s q .ft. sq .ft. sq .ft. sq .ft. sq.ft. divisible by 4 or 5 divisible by 2 or 3 various sizes Full-Service Restaurant Lobby Bar/Lounge Coffee Bar Room Service Signature Restaurant with Outdoor Seating - Leased Spa Services Fitness Center Swimming Pool Concierge and Valet Services Business Center Shuttle Service Hilton Westin Sheraton Marriott Crowne Plaza Source: PKF Consulting . PROPERTY DESCRIPTION 111-4 The proposed Sylvan Beach Hotel will be well-located on scenic Galveston Bay proximate to both business and leisure demand generators. We consider the subject site to be well- suited for hotel development. The recommended facilities program for the proposed Sylvan Beach Hotel is appropriate for the market in type, size and quality. The amount of meeting space will provide a competitive advantage for the subject property in attracting group meetings demand. SECTION IV HOTEL MARKET ANALYSIS PKF Consulting HOTEL MARKET ANALYSIS IV-1 HOTEL MARKET OVERVIEW There are currently no full-service hotels located in the primary market area. Therefore, there is no directly competitive hotel market that can be used as a competitive set for the proposed Sylvan Beach Hotel. In order to determine the recommended facilities and to estimate the performance of the subject hotel, we have evaluated three different sets of hotels: existing area hotels, comparable hotels and competitive hotels located outside the market area. Existing Area Hotels The primary hotel market area is comprised of limited-service, select-service and extended-stay hotels located in La Porte, Pasadena and Deer Park. These properties tend to have a limited number of rooms, meeting space, services and amenities. The following table presents a list of the branded hotels located in these markets. Existing Area Hotels * La Porte La Quinta Inn Best Western Comfort Suites Holiday Inn Express Total Pasadena Quality Inn Super 8 Intown Suites La Quinta Total Deer Park Best Western Comfort Suites Hampton Inn Super 8 Total 112 49 67 55 283 108 49 121 63 341 54 56 63 30 203 Total Existing Hotels 827 . Includes only hotels with national brand affiliations. Source: PKF Consulting 1985 1996 1999 Oct 2006 1993 2000 2001 Dee 2006 1998 2003 2003 Nov 2006 In addition to these branded hotels, there are also numerous independent Iimited- service hotels and motels located throughout the market. Some of the independent properties located in the La Porte market include Fairway Inn, Garden Suites, Bayshore Motel, Plaza Hotel, Bayport Motel, Kings Bay and Port Inn. HOTEL MARKET ANALYSIS IV-2 Comparable Hotels Comparable hotels are defined as hotels that are located in similar markets. For the proposed hotel, a comparable hotel would be a full-service hotel located on or near a bay, lake or beach but also proximate to corporate demand. The following table shows the properties that we have identified as comparable to the subject property. Comparable Hotels Hotel Galvez Galveston 226 1911 14,025 4,550 62 Hilton NASA/Clear Lake 243 1983 13,894 5,000 57 Omni Corpus Christi (2 hotels) 821 1985 36,000 10,050 44 San Luis Resort Galveston 246 1985 40,000 6,000 163 Tremont House Galveston 119 1985 13;473 7,946 113 Hilton Resort Galveston 239 1986 6,284 3,500 26 Moody Gardens Galveston 428 1998 40,000 14,560 93 Total 2,322 * Meeting space does not include prefunction space. Source: PKF Consulting Five of these properties are located in Galveston, one on Clear Lake and two in Corpus Christi. Although comparable in facilities and rate, the Galveston and Corpus Christi properties have a much larger leisure and group component and a much smaller corporate market than the primary market area for the proposed Sylvan Beach hotel. The most comparable property is the Hilton NASA/Clear Lake, which is located approximately 10 miles south of the proposed site in a market that overlaps with the primary market for the subject property. Competitive Hotels Outside the Market Area As part of our market analysis, a survey was conducted of the major corporations located in the two major business parks within the primary market area for the proposed hotel. The respondents were asked to identify the hotels that they use for their hotel and meeting needs. The hotels which were identified are considered to be the competitive hotels located outside the market area, as follows: HOTEL MARKET ANALYSIS IV-3 Competitive Hotels Outside the Market Area South Shore Harbour Clear Lake 242 1980 25,000 8,800 103 Hilton Hobby Airport 303 1982 15,626 8,147 52 Hilton NASA/Clear Lake 243 1983 13,894 5,000 57 Marriott Hobby Airport 287 1986 21,500 11 ,400 75 Homewood Suites Clear Lake 92 1995 306 306 3 Candlewood Suites Clear Lake 121 1997 Boardwalk Inn Kemah 52 1998 12,226 4,150 235 Hampton Inn Webster 108 2000 1,810 946 17 Hampton Inn Seabrook 70 2003 1,000 1,000 14 Total 1,518 . Meeting space does not include prefunction space. Source: PKF Consulting All of these properties are either located in the Clear Lake area, approximately 10 miles south of the primary market, or at Hobby Airport, located approximately 20 miles west of the subject property. These properties are not considered directly competitive to the subject hotel because only a small part of their demand is generated by the primary market area. These properties range in type from full-service to select-service and extended-stay. HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE The operating performance of the existing area hotels, comparable hotels and competitive hotels located outside the market are presented below. . Percent Market Occupi. ' ~IHlf!:!I!! Year Available Pe t'l' Market Percent RevPAR4 Rooms Change OCC,%1 R09~~ ChilBIiliI, ADR3 Change , --- 0 --- --- 2003 182,865 9.6% 61% 111 ,900 -09% $47 4.4% $29 2004 210,240 15.0% 54% 114,000 1.9% $52 10.6% $28 2005 210,240 0.0% 72% 150,600 32.1% $52 0.0% $37 2006 210,240 0.0% 71% 149,000 -1.1% $56 7.7% $40 CACs 6.0% 7.2% 5.6% 7.5% 1 Rounded to the nearest whole percent 4 RevPAR = Gee. x ADR using rounded numbers 2 Rounded to the nearest hundred 5 Compound Annual Change 3 Rounded to the nearest whole dollar Source: Smith Travel Research & PKF Consulting Estimated Historic Market Performance Proposed Sylvan Beach Hotel E'r A Htl 2002 166 805 68* 112 900 $45 $30 HOTEL MARKET ANALYSIS IV-4 The existing hotels have experienced occupancies in the upper 60's and low 70's, except for 2003 and 2004 during the national recession. This reflects the strong corporate demand in the primary market area. The large increase in occupied rooms in 2005 shows the resurgence of the petrochemical industry in response to the strong Texas economy. Although rates have increased throughout the period, rates in the $50's indicate the type of properties available and the price sensitivity of the demand that is not leaving the market. However, average rates were as high as $90 at the more upscale properties. . Year Available Percent Market Occt.ipi811 pe:t:l"! ' Market Percent RevPAR4 Rooms Change OCC.%1 Rogm~ "" Ch "Il ADR3 Change 2002 762,120 --- 61% 462,600 --- $106 --- $64 2003 762,120 0.0% 60% 455,700 -1.5% $109 2.8% $65 2004 835,485 9.6% 56% 467,900 2.7% $114 4.6% $64 2005 847,530 1.4% 61% 520,400 11.2% $120 5.3% $74 2006 847,530 0.0% 64% 540,700 3.9% $129 7.5% $82 CACs 2.7% 4.0% 5.0% 6.4% 1 Rounded to the nearest whole percent 4 RevPAR = Occ. x ADR using rounded numbers 2 Rounded to the nearest hundred 5 Compound Annual Change 3 Rounded to the nearest whole dollar Source: Smith Travel Research & PKF Consulting Estimated Historic Market Performance Proposed Sylvan Beach Hotel C bl H t I Occupancies have remained around 60% at the comparable properties, which is indicative of the seasonality of demand in a strongly leisure oriented market. In 2006, rates ranged from $110 to $160 at the comparable properties with an average of $129. This is a good indication of the potential rates that would be obtainable at the subject property. Estimated Historic Market Performance Proposed Sylvan Beach Hotel Com etitive Hotels Outside the Market Area 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% $86 -3.1% $92 2.0% $95 13.8% $100 2.9% $104 3.7% 4.9% 4 RevPAR - Occ. x ADR using rounded numbers 5 Compound Annual Change 7.0% 3.3% 5.3% 4.0% 1 Rounded to the nearest whole percent 2 Rounded to the nearest hundred 3 Rounded to the nearest whole dollar Source: Smith Travel Research & PKF Consulting Occupancies at the competitive hotels reached the upper 60's in 2006. Since these properties are located outside the market area, they do not reflect the strength of the primary market area. Rates are less than the comparable properties because of the range in the type of hotels in this sample. HOTEL MARKET ANALYSIS IV-5 MARKET DEMAND SEGMENTATION The market demand segmentation for the existing area hotels, comparable hotels and competitive hotels located outside the market are illustrated in the following table. Market Demand Segmentation Existing1lll1' If ; " Area '~~;i Co ...e Competitive Market Segment HoteJ!;, .""M" ~ ~;~it._ Hotels Corporate 70% 28% 56% Group Meeting 20% 42% 29% Leisure 10% 30% 15% Total 100% 100% 100% Source: PKF Consulting The mix of demand for the existing area hotels is a good indication of the mix of demand located in the primary market area. Discussions with the local hotel representatives indicated that the higher rated properties are able to attract the less price sensitive engineers that are not leaving the market and international visitors to the Port and petrochemical industry, whereas the lower rated properties cater to the construction workers and trucking industry. The existing hotels have a limited amount of meeting space which restricts the ability to capture corporate meeting demand. The properties that had meeting space indicated that they receive many requests for meeting space that they are unable to accommodate. The mix of the comparable properties shows their orientation toward the group and leisure markets. Corporate demand in these markets is not as strong as in the primary market area. Competitive hotels located outside the market area have stronger corporate and group markets, somewhat similar to the primary market area. ADDITIONS TO SUPPLY The proposed Sylvan Beach hotel is estimated to open in January 2010. We were unable to identify any definite plans to develop another upscale, full-service hotel in the primary market area. A local developer is considering the development of a hotel on the La Porte Bayfront near the municipal golf course but plans are preliminary at this time. There are several select-service and extended-stay hotels in different stages of development in the market area. There are two Value Place extended-stay hotels currently under construction, one in La Porte and one in Pasadena. A Quality Inn is being developed on Fairmont Parkway in Pasadena. A Hampton Inn is in the preliminary planning stages in La Porte south of the La Quinta on SH 146. HOTEL MARKET ANALYSIS IV-6 HOTEL DEMAND OVERVIEW In order to evaluate the demand for an upscale, full-service hotel in the primary market area, we conducted a mail survey of corporations located in the Battleground Industrial District and Bayport Industrial District and La Porte community organizations. We also evaluated existing meeting facilities and the potential for leisure demand in the primary market area. Survey Results Surveys were mailed to 105 corporations and 13 community organization, of which 33 corporations responded (31%) and four community organizations responded (31%). The results of the survey are presented in the following table. Survey Results Proposed Sylvan Beach Hotel Number of Surveys Mailed Out 105 13 Returned 33 31% 4 31% Need for an Upscale, Full-Service Hotel Yes 19 58% 2 50% No 14 42% 2 50% Number of People Needing Hotel Rooms Annual Range Per Respondent 6 to 240 N/A Respondents With Need for an Upscale, Full-Service Hotel That Are Leaving the Local Market Area Number Reporting Current Hotel Used 18 1 Number Leaving the Local Market Area 14 78% 0 0% Need for Meeting Space Yes 23 70% 4 100% No 10 30% 0 0% Size of Meetings (Number of Attendees) Training Meetings 5 to 50 Banquets/Awards 100 to 650 200 to 450 Holiday Parties 80 to 150 Other Meetings 10 to 400 10 to 75 Respondents With Meeting Space Need That Are Leaving the Local Market Area Number Reporting Current Hotel Used 22 4 Number Leaving the Local Market Area 18 82% 0 0% Respondents That Would Use the Proposed Hotel on Sylvan Beach or La Porte Bayfront Yes 26 79% 4 100% No 7 21% 0 0% Source: PKF Consulting HOTEL MARKET ANALYSIS IV-? Of those that responded, 58% of the corporations and 50% of the community organizations indicated that they had a need for an upscale, full-service hotel for overnight accommodations. The respondents indicated that 70% of the corporations and 100% of the community organizations had a need for meeting space at an upscale, full-service hotel. The surveys returned by the corporations indicated that 78% were leaving the market area for hotel accommodations and 82% were leaving the market area for meeting space needs. When asked if they would use an upscale, full-service hotel located on Sylvan Beach or the La Porte Bayfront for hotel accommodations and/or meeting space needs, 79% of the corporations and 100% of the community organizations indicated that they definitely would. The results of this survey are a strong indicator that there is a need for an upscale, full-service hotel at the proposed site. Group Demand Based on the results of the survey, there appears to be a strong corporate demand for group meeting space that is currently leaving the market. To assess the need for quality meeting space in the primary market, we also evaluated existing meeting facilities. While there are meeting rooms of various sizes available at local restaurants and clubs, the only designated meeting facilities in the market area are the Pasadena Convention Center and the Sylvan Beach Pavilion. The Pasadena Convention Center and Municipal Fairgrounds facilities are described in the following table. Pasadena Convention Center & Municipal Fairgrounds Description of Facilities '~1lF0JI!I!I!I!!; ~"l ~._"'" h' ;;'1c,:wqua ';~l"'l;F Type of Facility ;~., J:ei ": LIiP Capacity Ballroom/Exhibit Hall 21 ,156 960 to 2,850 Divisible: 4 - 3,321 & 1 - 8,710 Meeting Rooms (2) 783 & 1,616 60 & 164 Rodeo Arena 28,270 4,000 Rodeo Hall with Cement Floor 14,518 800 Livestock Pavilion 30,000 Source: Pasadena Convention Center & Municipal Fairgrounds The Pasadena Convention Center is located on Fairmont Parkway approximately five miles west of the proposed hotel site. The Center has a large ballroom/exhibit hall that can be divided into five sections and two small meeting rooms. The property is also the home of the Pasadena Rodeo and Strawberry Festival. The rodeo arena is an open-air arena with a dirt floor and the rodeo hall is a metal building with a cement floor. HOTEL MARKET ANALYSIS IV-8 The types of events that are currently being held at the Pasadena Convention Center and Municipal Fairgrounds are 50% comrnunity events, 25% Rodeo and Strawberry Festival and 25% for-profit events. During 2006, there were 54 events with an average attendance of 1,760. Facility representatives indicated that they are unable to attract corporate and association demand because of their lack of adequate breakout rooms and the need for a quality full-service hotel. The Pasadena Convention Center indicated that they would be interested in working with the proposed Sylvan Beach Hotel to attract more corporate and association business to the area. By using the Center's large ballroom for exhibits and the hotel for breakout rooms and quality accommodations, some of the groups that are currently leaving the market could be captured. The Sylvan Beach Pavilion is a popular venue for local events. The following table presents a description of its facilities. Sylvan Beach Pavilion Description of Facilities 'r';,:nlr:Squa"~ 1'"111'11 Type of Facility 1~~~FeeW L~L Capacity Ballroom with Large Permanent Dance Floor and Stage 9,833 320 to 510 Foyer & Concession Area 2,800 150 Outdoor Deck 4,978 Source: City of La Porte, Parks & Recreation Department The Pavilion is a two-story round building with the meeting facilities located on the second floor with a panoramic view of Galveston Bay. The first floor is not enclosed and is currently used for parking and storage. The ballroom is a large round-shaped room with a large permanent dance floor in the middle and a 51-foot stage. For events, tables are arranged around the perimeter of the room. The foyer can be used as a meeting room or as a concession area. It is equipped with a large concession stand. The outdoor deck, which faces Galveston Bay, is popular for receptions. The following table presents the event activity at the Sylvan Beach Pavilion for the past two years and the future bookings for the current year. HOTEL MARKET ANALYSIS IV-9 Sylvan Beach Pavilion Event Activity Historical 2004/2005 37 26 22 2 19 106 332 2005/2006 50 25 20 2 21 118 282 Future Bookings 2006/2007 37 41 13 2 10 103 Source: City of La Porte, Parks & Recreation Department More than 100 events are currently being held at the Pavilion each year. The scenic location on Galveston Bay is a popular location for wedding receptions, quincenaros and local banquets. However, the Pavilion has been damaged over the years by storms, age and erosion and is currently in need of major repairs. Therefore, we recommend that the Pavilion be replaced by and incorporated into the proposed hotel. A lot of sentimental value is attached to the Pavilion because of the large number of community events that have taken place there over the past 60 years. We recommend that the ballroom in the proposed hotel be called liThe Pavilion" and be designed with a similar shape and view of Galveston Bay to provide a link with the local community. Leisure Demand Leisure demand in the primary market is currently limited to passengers on the existing Norwegian cruise line, participants at weekend sports events, visitors of local residents and visitors to the San Jacinto Monument, Battleship Texas and Galveston Bay. However, the addition of Project Stars, the new Bayport Cruise Terminal and the redevelopment of Sylvan Beach should increase tourist activity in the market significantly. This should provide a strong weekend occupancy for the proposed hotel. SUBJECT HOTEL PERFORMANCE Based on the historical performance of the existing area hotels, comparable hotels and competitive hotels located outside the market area and our analysis of the existing and future market demand, we have estimated the operating performance of the proposed Sylvan Beach Hotel. Market Demand Segmentation The subject hotel is expected to capture the following mix of demand. HOTEL MARKET ANALYSIS IV-10 Corporate Group Leisure Total Source: PKF Consulting The majority of the demand for the proposed Sylvan Beach hotel will be corporate demand from the Port of Houston and the petrochemical industry. Group demand will be generated by corporate, association and community events. Leisure demand will be generated by Project Stars, Bayport Cruise Terminal and Sylvan Beach. Occupancy and Average Daily Rate The following table shows the estimated occupancy and ADR for the proposed Sylvan Beach hotel, assuming a 3% inflation rate. Estimated Occupancy and ADR Proposed Sylvan Beach Hotel Anllt '..ge Year OCC~ " ate* 2010 64% $158 2011 68% $162 2012 72% $167 2013 74% $172 2014 74% $177 * Stated Year Dollars, rounded to the nearest dollar. Based on an ADR of $140 in 2006 dollars. Source: PKF Consulting As the only upscale, full-service hotel in the market, occupancies are expected to increase from 64% in 2010 to 74% in 2013, the stabilized year. The subject property should be able to reach this level of occupancy because of the strong corporate and group weekday demand and the anticipated weekend leisure demand. ADR is expected to be $140 in 2006 dollars, which is similar to rates being achieved by both comparable hotels and competitive hotels located outside the market. SECTION V PROSPECTIVE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS PKF Consulting PROSPECTIVE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS V -1 BASES OF ESTIMATIONS On the basis of our evaluation of market findings relative to the proposed 250-room Sylvan Beach Hotel in La Porte, Texas, we have prepared schedules of estimated operating results, which we believe could be generated by the operation of a facility of the type, size and caliber as described in the preceding sections of the report. In estimating the future operating results, we analyzed historical 2005 operating statements of five comparable full-service hotels. We have not identified them by location, in order to protect the confidentiality of our sample. These properties ranged in size from 237 to 293 rooms with an average of 258. Occupancy rates ranges from 69% to 75% with an average of 72%. ADR ranged from $121 to $164 with an average of $136. The amount of meeting space at the comparables ranged from 9,000 to 22,000 square feet with an average of 16,200. We estimated revenues and expenses based on the market analysis described herein, the performance of comparable properties, typical industry parameters, premiums and efficiencies for a branded, full-service hotel. In evaluating comparables, we considered expenses as a percent of revenue, as well as per occupied room (POR) and per available room (PAR). We then incorporated such estimates into the assumptions that we have made, regarding inflation (3% per year), start-up period and market penetration rates, in order to generate the estimated annual operating results, presented at the end of this section. Our estimates are for the years 2010 through 2019. All dollar financial POR and PAR are expressed in 2006 dollars. The classification of income and expenses in the statements presented in this report generally follows the Uniform System of Accounts for Hotels, recommended by the American Hotel & Lodging Association. DEPARTMENTAL REVENUES Revenue from guestroom rentals is a result of two factors: occupancy level, or occupied room nights, and average daily room rate (ADR). Based on data presented in the Market Analysis section of this report, estimated occupancy levels, average daily room rates, and resulting room revenue for the subject hotel over the projection period are summarized in the following table. PROSPECTIVE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS V.2 Annual "ll' .ve~.~ ;:: Rooms Year Occupancy _ b ~iillily ~ ,i~~, Revenue Estimated Rooms Revenue Proposed Sylvan Beach Hotel la Porte, Texas 2010 64% $158 $9,227,000 2011 68% $162 $10,052,000 2012 72% $167 $10,972,000 2013 74% $172 $11,615,000 2014 74% $177 $11,953,000 Source: PKF Consulting Additional sources of revenue include food and beverage, telephone, other operated departments, and rentals and other income. Our stabilized year projections (in 2006 dollars) for additional revenue items are summarized below. Departmental lEi.null" ': ~;' '!;'t{ :<<"jii ~, Dollars Per ()~j1_!;,t Rggm,,a,,L Items Comparable Hotels Subject Hotel Projections Range Average Stabilized Year Food $39.64 - $71.15 $55.32 $55.00 Beverage $6.01 - $11.99 $9.12 $9.00 Telecommunication $1.17-$4.38 $2.58 $2.50 Other Operated Departments $1.85 - $8.68 $5.28 $5.00 Rentals and Other Income $1.70 - $3.17 $2.31 $2.00 Source: PKF Consulting DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES Departmental expenses are chargeable to a specific revenue-producing department, in this case Rooms, Food and Beverage, Telecommunications and Other Operated Departments. Departmenli'.sE1f1J j! Percent of DepaJ'lm R fl~, Items Comparable Hotels Subject Hotel Projections Range Average Stabilized Year Rooms ($ paR) $23.89 - $38.48 $32.28 $32.00 Food and Beverage 66.8% - 81.1% 73.4% 70.0% Telecommunications 49.3% -177.1% 80.3% 95.0% Other Operated Departments 38.2% - 81.0% 49.3% 50.0% Source: PKF Consulting PROSPECTIVE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS V-3 UNDISTRIBUTED OPERATING EXPENSES Undistributed operating expenses are necessary to the operation of the property though not directly chargeable to a revenue-producing department and include Administrative and General, Marketing, Franchise Fees, Property Operations and Maintenance (PaM) and Utilities. Undistributed 0.9 Elltff' Dollars Per A It R "= Items Comparable Hotels Subject Hotel Projections Range Average Stabilized Year Adminstrative and General $3,861 - $6,655 $4,942 $4,600 Marketing $1,729 - $3,697 $2,609 $2,500 Franchise Fee (% of Rooms Rev) (1) 5.6% - 10.5% 8.1% 8.0% POM $2,137 - $3,387 $2,907 $2,900 Utilities $2,258 - $2,742 $2,552 $2,600 (1) All fees related to franchise expense are included in franchise fee, including marketing & reservation fees. Source: PKF Consulting FIXED EXPENSES Fixed expenses are necessary to maintain the property's availability to guests and, except for management fees, do not necessarily vary with performance. Fixed. ~~l': Dollars Per R~ J .~:~ Items Comparable Hotels Subject Hotel Projections Range Average Stabilized Year Management Fee (% of Total Rev) 2.2% - 4.2% 2.3% 3.0% Property Taxes (1) $144 - $1,845 $973 $1,000 Insurance $367 - $1393 $752 $750 (1) Property taxes are based on local taxes at competitive hotels. Source: PKF Consulting RESERVE FOR REPLACEMENT The reserve for replacement provides for the replacement of furniture, fixtures and equipment, as well as certain building finishes and systems. This reserve has been tiered at typical industry levels of 2% of total revenues in the first year, 3% in the second year, 4% in the third year and 5% thereafter. SCHEDULE OF PROSPECTIVE CASH FLOW BEFORE DEBT SERVICE The following schedules reflect the estimate of future operating performance of the subject hotel. The schedules are presented in stated year (inflated) dollars. ~ > ~ en >- ..J <( Z <( ..J <( () z <( z u:: w > i= u w a. en o 0:: a. -~~.~~~~~- 0)~;!~~5 .,..,.0 ~ -~~g~g~ NN.."'l 'Nr-.:_ a;{O;!~~5 .,..,.0 ~ -~~g~g~ NN..,.....~ ''''':0_ a;~~~~5 .,..,. 0 E <( -~~~~g~ NN.,O. 'No_ C;;~gs~;:5 ~~~ -~~g~g~ NN... 'cx:i~_ a;~~~~5 .,..,.0 E <( .. . Qj :c .!!! .~ .. 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""'('0')0 f'-.. 0 ""':""':C"':i cO Lt:i N 000 0 0 000 0 0 000 0 0 cOf'-..-M ,..: ai It)(oN 0 N (") N <0 0) 0_ on ~ ?ft.?ft'tft ...."'0 ""':""':M 'tft ;:Ii!. .... 0 cO Lri N 000 000 000 cD6cO ....<00 MN<O o o o N N .... on 'tft?ft?ft "#. ?ft ""'('0')0 <0 0 ""':""':M cO Lri N 000 0 0 000 0 0 000 0 0 cDNo5 cD cO (")1.000 M <0 MNI.O It) 0) on :oR .... 0; N o o o --i o .... on " E o u <= g "" i!! 8 Qi z " 2: " '" " 0: W "" "- "- '- o o o o. <0 o. : - o o o m '" (l) : - :oR o on o o o N ~ ~ ;:: :; .. r:: o (,) ~ ll. iU ~ o (/) ADDENDUM A PHOTOGRAPHS OF SYLVAN BEACH PARK AND PROPOSED HOTEL SITE PKf' Consulting PHOTOGRAPHS OF SYLVAN BEACH PARK & PROPOSED HOTEL SITE A-1 Sylvan Beach Picnic Area Sylvan Beach Playground & Gazebo PHOTOGRAPHS OF SYLVAN BEACH PARK & PROPOSED HOTEL SITE A-2 ...... J. ,. .---' ,..( At( V'" - '/ ~ ..-- Beachfront Parking Area Old Sylvan Beach Depot Museum PHOTOGRAPHS OF SYLVAN BEACH PARK & PROPOSED HOTEL SITE A-3 Sylvan Beach Wedding Gazebo Sylvan Beach Boat Dock PHOTOGRAPHS OF SYLVAN BEACH PARK & PROPOSED HOTEL SITE A-4 Sylvan Beach Pavilion on Proposed Hotel Site Back of Subject Site PHOTOGRAPHS OF SYLVAN BEACH PARK & PROPOSED HOTEL SITE A-5 Beachfront Adjacent to Pavilion (Beach to be Re-established Along Bayfront) View of Pavilion Ballroom from Bayfront PHOTOGRAPHS OF SYLVAN BEACH PARK & PROPOSED HOTEL SITE A-6 Entrance Corridor to Pavilion Pavilion Ballroom with Dance Floor & Stage PHOTOGRAPHS OF SYLVAN BEACH PARK & PROPOSED HOTEL SITE A-7 Another View of Large Ballroom View of Galveston Bay from Pavilion PHOTOGRAPHS OF SYLVAN BEACH PARK & PROPOSED HOTEL SITE A-a Pavilion Foyer & Concession Area Pavilion Outdoor Deck ADDENDUM B STATEMENT OF ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITING CONDITIONS PKF Consulting STATEMENT OF ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITING CONDITIONS The following Standard Conditions apply to real estate consulting assignments by PKF Consulting: Achievability of Projections - Some assumptions inevitably will not materialize, and unanticipated events and circumstances may occur; therefore actual results achieved during the period under study will vary from our estimates and the variations may be material. Archaeological Significance - No investigation has been made by the consultant and no information has been provided to the consultant regarding potential archaeological significance of the subject property or any portion thereof. This report assumes no portion of the subject property has archaeological significance. Definitions and Assumptions - The definitions and assumptions upon which our analyses, opinions and conclusions are based are set forth in appropriate sections of this report and are to be part of these general assumptions as if included here in their entirety. Dissemination of Material- Neither all nor any part of the contents of this report (including the identity of the consultant or PKF Consulting) shall be disseminated to the general public through advertising or sales media, public relations media, news media or other public means of communication without the prior written consent and approval of PKF Consulting. Distribution and Liability to Third Parties - The party for whom this report was prepared may distribute copies of this report only in its entirety to such third parties as may be selected by the party for whom this report was prepared; however, portions of this report shall not be given to third parties without the written consent of PKF Consulting. Liability to third parties will not be accepted. Economic and Social Trends - The consultant assumes no responsibility for economic, physical or demographic factors which may affect or alter the opinions in this report if said economic, physical, or demographic factors were not present as of the date of the letter of transmittal accompanying this report. The consultant is not obligated to predict future political, economic or social trends. Engineering Survey - No engineering survey has been made by the consultant. Except as specifically stated, data relative to size and area of the subject property was taken from sources considered reliable and no encroachment of the subject property is considered to exist. Hazardous Materials - The consultant has not been provided any information regarding the presence of any material or substance on or in any portion of the subject property or improvements thereon, which material or substance possesses or may possess toxic, hazardous and/or other harmful and/or dangerous characteristics. Unless otherwise stated in the report, the consultant did not become aware of the presence of any such material or substance during the consultant's inspection of the subject property. However, the consultant is not qualified to investigate or test for the presence of such materials or substances. Unless otherwise stated, this report assumes the subject property is in compliance with all federal, state and local environmental laws, regulations and rules. Hidden Conditions - The consultant assumes no responsibility for hidden or unapparent conditions of the property, subsoil, ground water or structures that render the subject more or less valuable. No responsibility is assumed for arranging for engineering, geologic or environmental studies that may be required to discover such hidden or unapparent conditions. Income Data Provided by Third Party - Income and expense data related to the property being appraised was provided by the client and is assumed, but not warranted, to be accurate. Information Furnished by Others -In preparing the report, the consultant was required to rely on information furnished by other individuals or found in previously existing records and/or documents. Unless otherwise indicated, such information is presumed to be reliable. However, no warranty, either express or implied, is given by the consultant for the accuracy of such information and the consultant assumes no responsibility for STA TEMENT OF ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITING CONDITIONS (Continued) information relied upon later found to have been inaccurate. The consultant reserves the right to make such adjustments to the analyses, opinions and conclusions set forth in this report as may be required by consideration of additional data or more reliable data that may become available. Legal Expenses - Any legal expenses incurred in defending or representing ourselves concerning this assignment will be the responsibility of the client. Legal Matters - No opinion is intended to be expressed for matters that require legal expertise or specialized investigation or knowledge beyond that customarily employed by real estate consultants. Licenses and Permits - Unless otherwise stated, the property is evaluated assuming that all required licenses, permits, certificates, consents or other legislative and/or administrative authority from any local, state or national government or private entity or organization have been or can be obtained or renewed for any use on which the analysis contained in this report is based. Limits of Liability - PKF Consulting cannot be held liable in any cause of action resulting in litigation for any dollar amount which exceeds the total fees collected from this individual engagement. Maps, Plats and Exhibits - Maps, plats and exhibits included in this report are for illustration only to serve as an aid in visualizing matters discussed within the report. They should not be considered as surveys or relied upon for any other purpose, nor should they be removed from, reproduced or used apart from the report. Obligation to Update Report - The report will be dated to coincide with our last day of fieldwork. The terms of this engagement are such that we have no obligation to update our estimates to reflect events or conditions which occur subsequent to the last day of our fieldwork. However, we will be available to discuss the necessity for revision in view of changes in the economic or market factors affecting the project. Right of Publication - Possession of this report, or a copy of it, does not carry with it the right of publication. Without the written consent of PKF Consulting, this report may not be used for any purpose by any person other than the party to whom it is addressed. In any event, this report may be used only with properly written qualification and only in its entirety for its stated purpose. Testimony in Court - Testimony or attendance in court or at any other hearing is not required by reason of rendering this report, unless such arrangements are made a reasonable time in advance of said hearing. Further, unless otherwise indicated, separate arrangements shall be made concerning compensation for the consultant's time to prepare for and attend any such hearing. Use in Offering Materials - This report, including all cash flow forecasts, market surveys and related data, conclusions, exhibits and supporting documentation may not be reproduced or references made to the report or to PKF Consulting in any sales offering, prospectus, public or private placement memorandum, proxy statement or other document ("Offering Material") in connection with a merger, liquidation or other corporate transaction unless PKF Consulting has approved in writing the text of any such reference or reproduction prior to the distribution and filing thereof. Zoning and Land Use - Unless otherwise stated, the subject property is evaluated assuming it to be in full compliance with all applicable zoning and land use regulations and restrictions. ADDENDUM C CERTIFICATION PKF Consulting CERTIFICATION We certify that, to the best of our knowledge and belief: · The statements of fact contained in this report are true and correct. · The reported analyses, opinions, and conclusions are limited only by the reported assumptions and limiting conditions, and are our personal, unbiased professional analyses, opinions and conclusions. · We have no present or prospective interest in the project that is the subject of this report, and we have no personal interest or bias with respect to the parties involved. · We have no bias with respect to the property that is the subject of this report or to the parties involved with this assignment. · Our engagement in this assignment was not contingent upon the developing or reporting of predetermined results. · Our compensation is not contingent upon the development or reporting of predetermined results that favors the cause of the client, the attainment of a stipulated result, or the occurrence of a subsequent event directly related to the intended use of this report. · We have made a personal inspection of the proposed site that is the subject of this report. · No one provided significant professional assistance to the persons signing below except as sourced within the body of this report. ~R~ mc-~ G. Randle McCaslin Vice President