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<br />IS L
<br />r Bob Bullock, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
<br />..... .
<br />Issue 87:1 * * * Economic Analysis Center * * * January 1987
<br />Biennial Revenue Foreeast:
<br />Lean Times Ahead
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Motor Fuel
<br />Gallons
<br />Gasoline Diesel
<br />
<br />Texas Production and Consumption Indicators
<br />(Amounts in Millions)
<br />Crude
<br />
<br />Most Revenue Is Off-Limits
<br />The Comptroller estimates
<br />Texas will receive $35.1 billion in
<br />revenue from all sources in 1988-
<br />89. This is 0.8 percent less than
<br />the $35.3 billion received in
<br />1986-87.
<br />Most of the money Texas re-
<br />ceives is dedicated for specific
<br />uses. Dedicated money is not
<br />available for general spending.
<br />Of the $35,1 billion in estimat-
<br />ed 1988-89 total revenue, $11.9
<br />billion will be dedicated to Spe-
<br />cial Funds. The most important
<br />Special Funds receive:
<br />· Federal money for social ser-
<br />vices, highways, public schools or
<br />other services ($8.7 billion).
<br />· Earnings from the Permanent
<br />School and University Funds and
<br />other interest, dividends and land
<br />income ($1,9 billion),
<br />· Miscellaneous fees and other
<br />money targeted for specific agen-
<br />cy uses, such as college tuition
<br />and fees ($1.3 billion).
<br />Subtracting Special Funds
<br />($11. 9 billion) from total revenue
<br />($35.1 billion) leaves an estimat-
<br />ed $23,2 billion in so-called
<br />Major Fund revenue in 1988-89,
<br />But $16,8 billion of this will not
<br />Continued on page 2
<br />
<br />How Much
<br />Be?
<br />After deducting money set
<br />aside for specific purposes and
<br />constitutional and statutory allo-
<br />
<br />There
<br />
<br />Will
<br />
<br />Money
<br />
<br />Just before each session of
<br />the Legislature, the Comptroller
<br />estimates how much money state
<br />government will receive during
<br />the upcoming two-year budget
<br />period,
<br />Under the Texas
<br />Constitution's
<br />
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<br />I
<br />,
<br />I
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<br />
<br />I
<br />:1
<br />,
<br />,
<br />
<br />Sales
<br />Value
<br />
<br />1\1111
<br />Net
<br />
<br />Cigllrelle
<br />PkllS,
<br />
<br />Cement
<br />Tons
<br />
<br />
<br />cations, the Legislature will have
<br />an estimated $6.4 billion in gen-
<br />eral revenue available for spend-
<br />ing between September I, 1987,
<br />and August 31, 1989--the 1988-
<br />89 biennium.
<br />This amount is substantially
<br />less than in recent bienniums.
<br />In the 1986-87 Biennial Revenue
<br />Estimate (BRE), the equivalent
<br />number was $10.4 billion. In the
<br />1984-85 BRE, it was $12.3 billion,
<br />
<br />pay-as-you-go re-
<br />quirement, the
<br />Comptroller's es-
<br />timate becomes
<br />the framework
<br />within which the
<br />Legislature writes
<br />the next state
<br />budget,
<br />The revenue es-
<br />timate for fiscal
<br />1988-89 shows the
<br />hard facts of state
<br />government's fi-
<br />nances for the last two years of
<br />this decade. Among them:
<br />· Texas is short of money.
<br />· Most of the money the state
<br />does have is reserved for specific
<br />purposes, Relatively little is avail-
<br />able for general spending,
<br />· While Texas' economy is grow-
<br />ing, state revenue is not. The
<br />reason is that the state's tax sys-
<br />tem does not mirror the
<br />economy.
<br />
<br />I
<br />tJ
<br />.{,
<br />I'
<br />"
<br />1"
<br />f.
<br />I
<br />I
<br />
<br />
<br />,
<br />I
<br />
<br />,
<br />
<br />Natural Gas
<br />MCF Value
<br />525.1 $ 1.252,7
<br />447.1 1,088.3
<br />472.0 1.093.4
<br />457.5 1.037,6
<br />472.4 1.097.0
<br />463,7 1.090,0
<br />486,5 1.140,6
<br />474,8 1.106,0
<br />456.9 1.029,3
<br />470,0 1,050.9
<br />463.9 1.020.6
<br />521.3 1.109.1
<br />5,711.2 $13.115.5
<br />521.8 $ 1.178.8
<br />451.8 1.055,2
<br />462.5 1.029.6
<br />435,8 987,0
<br />438,2 941.0
<br />440.2 977.3
<br />476.3 1.019.3
<br />490.7 1.030,8
<br />455.1 937,0
<br />459.9 930.1
<br />470.1 943.2
<br />526.6 1.032,2
<br />5.629.0 $12,061.5
<br />499,2 $ 960,0
<br />443,3 825.0
<br />454,6 813,9
<br />428.1 707,1
<br />443.2 685.4
<br />413.5r 602.5r
<br />502.4e 664.0c
<br />493.ge 682,Oe
<br />446,1e 593.3e
<br />-
<br />4.124,3c $ 6,533,2e
<br />
<br />Oil
<br />Value
<br />
<br />$ 2.071,3
<br />1.973.2
<br />2,119.9
<br />2.043.7
<br />2.107,6
<br />2.011.1
<br />2.084.4
<br />2.072.1
<br />1.982,8
<br />2.044.1
<br />1,952,8
<br />1.980,1
<br />$24.443.1
<br />$ 1.895,3
<br />1.659.6
<br />1.863.7
<br />1.855,7
<br />1.969.8
<br />1.851.2
<br />1. 965,2
<br />1.896,6
<br />1.796.9
<br />1.909,2
<br />1.924,1
<br />1.952,0
<br />$22.539.3
<br />$ 1,834,0
<br />1,232,8
<br />1,033. 7
<br />847,5
<br />868,9
<br />850.9r
<br />733.ge
<br />773.3e
<br />839,Ie
<br />849.4e
<br />$ 9.863,5e
<br />
<br />Rbis.
<br />
<br />71.4
<br />67.9
<br />73.0
<br />70.4
<br />72,6
<br />69.3
<br />71.9
<br />71.7
<br />68,8
<br />71.1
<br />69.2
<br />71.2
<br />848,5
<br />
<br />70.8
<br />63,2
<br />70.3
<br />69.5
<br />73.2
<br />69,2
<br />73.8
<br />71.3
<br />67.2
<br />71.0
<br />71.0
<br />71.5
<br />842,0
<br />
<br />Ycar and
<br />Month
<br />1984
<br />
<br />January
<br />February
<br />March
<br />
<br />April
<br />May
<br />June
<br />July
<br />August
<br />September
<br />October
<br />November
<br />December
<br />TOTAL
<br />
<br />985
<br />
<br />January
<br />February
<br />March
<br />April
<br />May
<br />June
<br />
<br />July
<br />August
<br />September
<br />October
<br />November
<br />December
<br />TOTAL
<br />986
<br />
<br />70,7
<br />62.9
<br />70.9
<br />67,1
<br />67,2
<br />65.0r
<br />64.6e
<br />63.8e
<br />62.ge
<br />64.4e
<br />659.5e
<br />rc\'iscd
<br />
<br />January
<br />February
<br />March
<br />April
<br />May
<br />June
<br />July
<br />August
<br />Scptember
<br />October
<br />
<br />TOTAL
<br />e estimatcd
<br />
<br />Fiscal Notes
<br />
<br />
<br />Bob Bullock, Comptroller ot Public Accounts
<br />
<br />Analysis
<br />
<br />Economic
<br />Center
<br />
<br />BULK RATE
<br />U,S, POSTAGE PAID
<br />AUSTIN, TX
<br />PERMIT NO, 141
<br />
<br />0070319Fro
<br />
<br />660.0 27,3 ,74 57,2 $ 1.291.2
<br />659.4 24,3 ,96 24,5 1.348.4
<br />721.4 50.9 .08 50.0 1.545.1
<br />681,2 32.2 .17 49,7 1.616.4
<br />738,5 43,2 ,13 76.7 1.515.5
<br />638,6 43,2 ,OR 55.6 1.818,9
<br />736,1 92.7 .01 66,3 1.496.6
<br />666,1 18,0 .07 35.6 2,032.5
<br />634,2 26.4 ,86 81.6 1.765.3
<br />703.0 126.2 .711 184.4 1.308,5
<br />700,6 130.6 ,90 142,6 1.171.7
<br />594.3 132,5 .69 160,7 1.336.7
<br /> -
<br />8.133.4 1.647,5 11.47 1.884,9 $18.246.8
<br />635,8 127,7 ,6R 147.9 $ 1.355,5
<br />612.6 125,2 .76 146,7 1.315,5
<br />720.8 155,3 ,94 131.9 1.801.0
<br />724,2 137.1 1.02 1(1),6 1.791.6
<br />750,1 140,9 1.05 155.1 1.527.2
<br />706,7 158.2 .94 153.2 1,794.4
<br />736,1 192.7 1.00 167.4 1.496.6
<br />754.1 143.5 1.02 135,6 1.509.2
<br />686.5 176.6 ,97 127,8 1.544.3
<br />722.9 142.8 ,90 121.9 1.296.0
<br />684,8 132.1 ,81 185,5 1.201.1
<br />726,3 150.2 ,80 176,6 1,550.4
<br />8.460,9 1.782.3 10,89 1.819.2 $18.182,8
<br />694,6 135.4 .97 159.4 $ 1.213.1
<br />645,6 123.6 .75 135.1 1.332.2
<br />746.7 147.9 .87 141.9 1.532.2
<br />727.1 128,2 ,94 163.9 1.489,3
<br />750.7 127.3 ,88 158,2 1.521.0
<br />732.5 92.5 .69 178,0 1.472.6
<br />770,2 134.2 .91 162.2 1.077.6
<br />710.9 131.6 .78 122,5 1.965,0
<br /> ,81 181.9 1.518.4
<br /> 163.0
<br />- - -
<br />5.778.3 1,020.7 7,60 .566,1 $13.121.4
<br />
<br />MS. CHERI BLACK
<br />CITY SECRETARY
<br />CITY OF LAPORTE
<br />P.O. BOX 1115
<br />LAPORTE, TX 77571
<br />
<br />For Additional Copies, Write:
<br />Bob Bullock, State Comptroller,
<br />Economic Analysis Center,
<br />P.O, Box 13528, Capitol Station,
<br />Austin, Tx 78711.
<br />
<br />Material in Fiscal NOles is not
<br />copyrighted and may be repro-
<br />duced, The Comptroller of Public
<br />Accounts would appreciate credit
<br />for the material used and a copy
<br />of the reprint.
<br />
<br />2--FISC'\
<br />
<br />987
<br />
<br />NOTES. JanuaQ'
<br />
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