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<br />Growth of Major
<br />Economic lndicators
<br />Percentage Change from
<br />Previous Biennium
<br />Gross State Product
<br />------ -- -- "-- -- --
<br />39.1%
<br />Nonfarm Emplo)'ment
<br />.. --- ----- - - _.- - -- -- .._-- -- ,
<br />11.1% I
<br /> !
<br />4.9% 4.8% !
<br /> 2.1% 2.6%:
<br /> ,
<br />--- . --- ---- -- ,
<br />Personal Income
<br />------ ___ b___ ~
<br /> ,
<br />34.6% I
<br /> ,
<br /> ;
<br /> ,
<br /> :
<br />Population
<br /> .--- --. .-
<br />6.1% 7.3%
<br />'80-'81 '82-'113 '84.'115 '86-'117* '88-'89*
<br />.Projected
<br />SOURCE: Bob Bullock. Comptrollcr of
<br />Public At'counts.
<br />.Januar)' 1987, FISCAl. NOTES--3
<br />
<br />accounted for 6.8 percent, for a
<br />total of 13 percent of total collec-
<br />tions. In 1988-89 oil taxes will
<br />decline to 4.7 percent of total
<br />taxes and natural gas taxes will
<br />account for 5.6 percent--a total of
<br />10 percent--Ieaving a substantial
<br />hole in overall tax revenue.
<br />Left to fill that hole are taxes
<br />that are unlikely to benefit much
<br />from the weak economic growth
<br />forecast for the state, Growth of
<br />these taxes depends largely on
<br />changes in population or
<br />inflation.
<br />Taxes based on value--includ-
<br />ing sales, motor vehicle sales,
<br />franchise and insurance taxes--
<br />generally grow at the same pace
<br />as inflation and population and
<br />make up about 65 percent of
<br />total tax reeeipts (as distin-
<br />guished from total revenue),
<br />Because the temporary increase
<br />in the state sales tax rate (from
<br />4,125 to 5.25 percent) will expire
<br />August 31, 1987, value-based tax
<br />receipts are expected to grow by
<br />only 1.2 percent in 1988-89. The
<br />value-based taxes will also be
<br />held back by moderate inflation
<br />Continued on page 4
<br />
<br />Most of the growth in 1988-89
<br />will occur in service-producing in-
<br />dustries. The estimated value of
<br />services produced in Texas will
<br />be up 13,1 percent from 1986-87.
<br />Meanwhile, the state's popula-
<br />tion is expected to grow 2.3 per-
<br />cent in 1988-89, compared to 3.1
<br />percent in 1986-87 and 4.4 per-
<br />cent in 1984-85. The 1988-89 bi-
<br />ennium will see net migration
<br />(move-ins minus move-outs) re-
<br />duced almost to zero. Natural
<br />causes (births minus deaths) will
<br />account for virtually all of Texas'
<br />population growth over the next
<br />two-year period,
<br />
<br />Monthly Statement of Cash Condition1
<br />(Amounts in Millions)
<br />
<br />"
<br />i
<br />I
<br />'I
<br />I,
<br />,I
<br />,
<br />
<br />Total Cash
<br />$ 2.130,3
<br />
<br />.387,6
<br />.514,0
<br />
<br />-126.4
<br />
<br />-325.7
<br />
<br />-452,
<br />
<br />,678.2
<br />
<br />$
<br />
<br />$
<br />
<br />$
<br />
<br />$
<br />
<br />$
<br />
<br />Special Funds
<br />$ 1.839.4
<br />
<br />09,0
<br />
<br />-302.2
<br />
<br />.537,2
<br />
<br />$ 695,3
<br />-1.106,5
<br />
<br />.2
<br />
<br />-4
<br />
<br />$
<br />
<br />$
<br />
<br />$
<br />
<br />$
<br />
<br />General Revenue
<br />$ 290.9
<br />
<br />284,8
<br />
<br />.434,7
<br />
<br />-149.9
<br />
<br />41.0
<br />
<br />$ 692,3
<br />-407,5
<br />
<br />$
<br />
<br />$
<br />
<br />$
<br />
<br />$
<br />
<br />986
<br />
<br />9862
<br />
<br />I.
<br />
<br />I,
<br />
<br />Beginning Cash Balance October
<br />
<br />3
<br />
<br />nterfund Transfers and
<br />Transactions
<br />
<br />Total Transactions
<br />
<br />Ending Cash Balance October
<br />
<br />ncome (Outgo)
<br />
<br />Revenue Expenditures'
<br />Revenue
<br />Expenditures
<br />
<br />Net
<br />Investment
<br />
<br />Net
<br />
<br />The Tax System Is Out of Step
<br />These modest economic gains
<br />still leave tax receipts down 2,9
<br />percent, as previously mentioned
<br />The reason is that Texas' tax sys-
<br />tem, which depends heavily on
<br />oil and gas, barely touches the
<br />service-producing industries that
<br />will be growing in 1988 and
<br />1989,
<br />In 1986-87, for instance, oil
<br />production and regulation taxes
<br />accounted for 5.9 percent of state
<br />tax revenue, and natural gas taxes
<br />
<br />Tax Revenue Growth
<br />Percentage Change from Previous Biennium
<br />
<br />35.1%
<br />
<br />'Cash stated is Comptroller's Office Book Cash and may vary from cash deposited with the Treasury. Net amounts shown (less refunds) exclude
<br />some transactions not cleared through the Comptroller's Office. Suspense and Trust Funds are included as arc unemployment compensation
<br />trust funds collected by the state but held in the Federal Treasury. Totals may not add due to rounding,
<br />'The cnding balance mcludes $909,7 million borrowed from other state funds for cash flow management.
<br />
<br />Fiscal Noles
<br />
<br />
<br />Bob Bullock. Comptroller of Public Accounts
<br />
<br />YEAR-TO-DATE
<br />SEPTEMBER 1986 - OCroBER 1986
<br />Percent Change
<br />From Last FY
<br />-7.3%
<br />-51,0
<br />12,9
<br />3.4
<br />.2,7
<br />144,0
<br />1.4
<br />-7,9
<br />501.0
<br />46,6
<br />-51,1
<br />-2,737,1
<br />15.3
<br />-53.2
<br />
<br />-8,3%
<br />
<br />Revenue
<br />$ 586,5
<br />76,1
<br />104.4
<br />169.0
<br />158.9
<br />31.2
<br />62.1
<br />56.2
<br />-2,2
<br />7.1
<br />21.2
<br />2,9
<br />9,2
<br />1.7
<br />,284.3
<br />
<br />MONTHLY REVENUE
<br />October
<br />1986
<br />$ 316,6
<br />38,2
<br />52.9
<br />82,7
<br />82.1
<br />14.9
<br />30,8
<br />25,7
<br />-3.7
<br />6,6
<br />6,2
<br />2.4
<br />8.7
<br />1.0
<br />
<br />$ 665.1
<br />
<br />TAX COLLECTIONS BY MAJOR TAX
<br />Sales Tax
<br />Oil Production Tax
<br />Natural Gas Production Tax
<br />Motor Fuels Taxes (Gasoline. Diesel, LPG)
<br />Motor Vehicle Sales Tax
<br />Franchise Tax
<br />Cigarette and Tobacco Taxes
<br />Alcoholic Beverage Taxes
<br />Insurance Companies Tax
<br />Utility Taxes2
<br />Inheritance Tax
<br />Telephone Tax
<br />Hotel and Motel Tax
<br />Other Taxes3
<br />
<br />TOTAL TAX COLLECTIONS
<br />
<br />Millions)
<br />
<br />State Revenue1
<br />All Funds
<br />in
<br />
<br />(Amounts
<br />
<br />.
<br />,
<br />I
<br />
<br />-8.3%
<br />12.3
<br />16.3
<br />7,7
<br />22,1
<br />
<br />75.8
<br />15,7
<br />17.1
<br />-49,7
<br />-88,5
<br />-3,3%
<br />
<br />$
<br />
<br />$1,284.3
<br />19.5
<br />90,9
<br />11.8
<br />31.1
<br />
<br />30,7
<br />671.6
<br />448,8
<br />47,2
<br />17,7
<br />$2,753.6
<br />
<br />665,1
<br />9,3
<br />83.9
<br />11.0
<br />16,(
<br />
<br />16,7
<br />331. 7
<br />221.3
<br />24.5
<br />8.0
<br />-
<br />$1,387,6
<br />
<br />$
<br />
<br />REVENUE BY RECEIPT TYPE
<br />Tax Collections (Detail Above)
<br />Business/Professional Fees
<br />Noncommercial Permits and Licenses
<br />Violations, Fines and Penalties
<br />State Service Fees
<br />Sales, Rental and Repayments of
<br />Goods and Services
<br />Federal Receipts
<br />Interest/Dividends
<br />Land Income
<br />Other Receipts
<br />
<br />TOTAL REVENUE'
<br />
<br />-2.9%
<br />1988-89*
<br />
<br />1986-87*
<br />
<br />1980-81 ) 982-83 1984-85
<br />.Projectcd
<br />SOURCE: Boh Bullock, Comptroller of Public Accounts,
<br />
<br />'Excludes some revenue not cleared through the Comptroller's Office.
<br />'Includes the Utility. Gas Utility Administration and the Public Utilities Gross Receipts Taxes.
<br />'Includes the Ad Valorem. Cement and Sulphur Taxes and other occupation and gross receipts taxes not separately identified.
<br />.Totals may not add due to rounding,
<br />
<br />Public Accounts - Fiscal Noles
<br />
<br />ComptroHer of
<br />
<br />Bob Bullock,
<br />
<br />IO--....SCAL NOTES, Januar)' 1987
<br />
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