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<br />AREA OVERVIEW
<br />
<br />11-3
<br />
<br />
<br />Relative Employment Performance (1991=100)
<br />
<br />150
<br />
<br />140
<br />
<br />130
<br />
<br />120
<br />
<br />110
<br />
<br />100
<br />
<br />90
<br />91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 'Yl
<br />
<br />
<br />II- II
<br />
<br />Gross Regioni11 Product csa
<br />Total Employment (000)
<br />
<br />2.8631 2.9315 2.9829 3.0367 3.115.3 3.264 () 3.403.9
<br />41.727 42706 42.710 42.323 42.244 42.980 43,,28
<br />2J -09 1,7
<br />.1 1 ~~ 9 .1 l S 7 58 5.3 50
<br />53 19 ~ b 2.2 3_5 6.9 61
<br />(i:t~bO ':J3.BYI 9S.~~:! U6,3B~' ~ll.b6S 990.19 100,;)11
<br />816,05577056098676.217 7 728;588.) 748,9686903,610,3407.458))
<br />521()64 500.461 528603 576016 639.833 726.828 797.044
<br />H:2 165.622 ;t5o.8-H4 177,479 170,:W~} 196,775 200.165
<br />190,* ,,)9_B 21:19 225.2 2374 25(i5 288.8
<br />328433 290.139 503.095 617.361 923,397 655,722 786,079
<br />5.5858 5.8838 5.8939 5.6405 5.6125 5.751.4 5.8426
<br />459.503 445.527 508.352 557.607 599.339 594.253 627.229
<br />
<br />STRENGTHS
<br />. Balanced housing markets in most of tile region,
<br />. Strong polll,cal base "' U.S Congress
<br />. Low business costs relative to U_S
<br />. Strong population growth
<br />
<br />WEAKNESSES
<br />. Globalization IS redUCing the Soulhs
<br />competitive advantage
<br />. Workforce quality still lags in many pi:1r!s of the
<br />regIon
<br />. Low per capIta Income and rising debt-service
<br />burdens
<br />
<br />CURRENT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
<br />
<br />October 2006 Employment Growth
<br />% change year ago, 3 mo, MA
<br />
<br />
<br />Tnl..'1
<br />
<br />-2 -,
<br />
<br />FORECAST RISKS
<br />
<br />-
<br />
<br />UPSIDE
<br />. Baby boom generatton rel1res ear1ier Ulan
<br />expected, SI.JpPOr1lOg housing and services
<br />. New Iflvestment 111 tech and aulo plants
<br />revitalize melro areas
<br />. Defense spending stays high In light of global
<br />conflicts
<br />
<br />DOWNSIDE
<br />. Loss of manufactunng industries accelerates
<br />. Intra-regionrll migration dmlns nJral counties,
<br />stresses urban areas
<br />
<br />Unemployment Ratti
<br />Personallllcomc Growt!l
<br />POplll.ltlon (OOO)
<br />Net Migration (OOO)
<br />Single.F;unily Permits
<br />Multifamily Pcmlits
<br />House Price Index (1980Q1 ::: 100)
<br />Mortgage Oriyinations ISM)
<br />New Vehicle Registrations (000)
<br />Personal Biln~ruptcies
<br />
<br />',(\
<br />
<br />Recenl Pl'rlonnancL', 1:]. ('111l10Ll\ oj
<br />Ihf SOUlh 1:--; 1'\Jldndl11:', ,!l ,1 ,,11)\\111,:. l',
<br />\IHlOUgh <I malOnl) Ii! .out II ,,1.11_". .11'1'
<br />J.~n)\\illg <It a piKe lo1'-.k: 1:1.;1 Ill\' 1"i[ILlI,
<br />gro\\ll1 h,b ,lo\\t'd in Ii]; iLI'"-1 11'\\' qll,I["I'r....
<br />(,1'0\\1111' ...lllI...tunl) III I ,\tldl,\:... Jl
<br />has ...l(]\\t'd llw Il1n...1 III .llJd I'll
<br />IW......I.\.. \\'Ili'r~' gro\\'lh I.!li" \\",11 h.lu\\
<br />I Ill' 11,ltIOll.li and n'.!-:lon.d .I\''''+,'~''''. Ill. ilH.d
<br />l'I',1110n 111 ioh grO\\11t ill Ill" \fltllll II-'lh L11
<br />Ihl... ~t'''r call lw Ir.1Ct'd t'l l\"1I hrtl,ld l1:du...
<br />tn.....: llliIllUf;.H lUring ,lIld .)\1' i]l'''-'''- "en HI S
<br />II1\' plC!tIn' ~~I'lS 1l1l1l'h,,'r .I; 11li' nwt:u
<br />It'H']. l'I\II.\.,(' Illl' ...t<t"'.., ',\])il 1 sljm\ ,I ;('11
<br />l'ral ...!Cl\\lllg .!tT(h'> 111,' l!rll,ld. 111l'H' I" 1lI\',
<br />lI1<Tl'a"'l'd dl"'p('r'IOIl 111 :111'1;11 <llI'.! IW lor
<br />111,1IKt' <tllllmg "'Ollllll'lll :'11\'1::1 ;tlt'.1'" \\, Ilik
<br />1110...1 d!'t' 1]0\\ 'l'I'lI1g ...J(l',\\': Ii'!) :_~rll\\l;j :l,tJ)
<br />l'arllt.1' tllh ~(,ill'. SOJlH' \,1'\ 1:1'\1"1' .ltl',I'"-, :]1
<br />dudll1il, tho...t' III ""(Jut)l i i.lll:: ,1111\1...1<::11 -"",lJJ
<br />\l1toIllO. .\11<1 1{,l1i'lgh, il,ll. 10 lllli'J 1:\ .'d
<br />pt'rfnnll,-lllu' o\er the lJ,!'-f 1111)11111-,
<br />Manufacluring. I\i'll ,j', !li"ln,li P,I\ 10]1...
<br />h.l\t' ...t"bill/I'd IllllimLd:'" Jllil111~LI PI["
<br />lIlg llHl11...ln mllli' ~illlll1 01;' ::II"" III il:\.....
<br />dlil' In ltlt' l'fJl1lll11h'tI 1~1:1I_.>',\ 01
<br />1ll.1I1l1Iat'lllrin,\~ frllm IIII' ~ 11,1.., f-.i'::n: t.\.
<br />li'llfH's:">I'c' and \rt.:tlll",j'> ':\1..1 rl.ll p-II.lut
<br />lion IsgrO\dnJ~, hUI.II,J Pdll' (~I Iiii'
<br />natHifla! ,l\t'ri1g1'_ Thl' ;1\1 :-,1"1 111(111\11;\. II: "li~
<br />\\nrk\\t.'tk 11".... also :>.1.1;11'11 '... "ll 01... II i 0 fill
<br />ll\'S 10 rlsl' ntl' lotl,llh,
<br />Business scrvkes, \]1:1(>11 :11 ..Ill! Ifl,',
<br />Illl' nation, lilt' 1l10d"LIIll;!1 101.1 .\~n '.\1 III
<br />Ini'lIll'S:>' "'1'l'\Hc' lIldl!..t!'II'>'; ~:,I" 111'1'0,1
<br />I~Kl()r \\('I~;hll1g on ll\ ,:;ro\~ 1;1
<br />d ft'\\ notahle t'\(l'ptl0f)~. I ),rll,l~ ,I !\a
<br />kigh. IW;lr!y ill! majol' ...r)\:III, : Illlll...lllt'...... I'll
<br />IeI'''' h.l\!' ",~'i'n..1 ...harp 1111Idl'I,1l1Ilii
<br />Illnng ...11Ot11d,,-f;lhlll/" 111t' ill'ill ~; 1 :11,
<br />hm\t'\!'!'. IIH'lkl~t' H(){.k h Illr\t-I-' ,'tll
<br />lwr dllll ()(.lllht,! hlll11 JIll 'I! 1,1111\
<br />allwil s]()\\lllg, IJlf"lJl~~ III ill., "\T\j('(', II...,
<br />
<br />
<br />-u.S
<br />
<br /> Forecast
<br />01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
<br /> Sou1h
<br /> II . II I.: II' I I
<br /> 3.5200 3.646 7 3,764 t 3.8861 40097
<br /> 44 749 454~)5 46, i 34 46,893 47,7J7
<br /> 1.9 1,6 16 ,
<br /> 45 ,17 ,: 6 ,~ :; .l4
<br />
<br />R_O 6,3 5.7 56 56
<br />101199 10T 1.:;: 1 04,Jn3 1O~,blt> 1:J!, 101
<br />1 '09.950.0649.120.368737847547850850.7828
<br />710032 619413 571.983 561,975 553A49
<br />198,9I8 15G.1..H) 156.792 1~)4,731 t62,D94
<br />3180 3267 332.0 J41_3 3528
<br />686313 590A.12 539,658 5..:2;~76 560,723
<br />6,105_9 6,Oi52 5,966.9 5,9521 5984,6
<br />434.545 401071 441,849 4":7,:12? 474.550
<br />
<br />ANALYSIS
<br />
<br />Inl'.... 1.~pl'naJh III h.'11lpOrar~ hl'lp_ Strong
<br />,-,jrpnr<ilt. prolll ~,:n)\\lh dnd d drop III t~rh"l'};~
<br />"li'l( t'''' Illd\ help pnl\HhO ....(llllt. 11II11' III hW'd
<br />;]1':-." hiring 111 thl' llt'dl' knll.
<br />(>fcelil ('oltditi(}n~. The ')oulll l~ !t-,,:-, t.\.
<br />:HI....l'd 10 " 1iqulllll) crullch Oll IIii' p<lrt oj
<br />.t'l1(kr,,_ \lUdl ul ttlt' SOlllh t'll,lors 10\\('1"
<br />IId)l St'I'\ICl' burdt'Il<';, \\hleh ll1.'lk('s 111(' n',
<br />~:j)n J't'I<llJ\'t'l\ k...s 1'1...1-\\' for It.ll(k1'..... I H1'111l'r,
<br />[lW,,1 ,",o\ltl)(,fn rl'....ah'nl:-; ill!>.o enjoy <l ]0\\('1"
<br />!(j;mIO\ilhw r;lllo, \\hidl sugges,ls lllat l!W~
<br />dn' more' \'(,'Slt'd in Iht'ir hOIlIt.S, and htl\l' a
<br />:I!t Inor... to lose lrom \\',llknl~~ i1\,.I) from t"
<br />':-.IJ!lg llI()rlga~~("... B\ t'Olllrdsl. 11OIIll'0\\l1tTS
<br />11 11H' hollt'r \orttlt'.l...t ;111<1 \\t....t COdst mar
<br />.dl.... 11.1\(' lwndill't! Irolll I:'\otlt.' !IlOrl,~ag('~
<br />: ];.rl hd\l' ..Ilo\\t'd thelll 10 purdlihc homes
<br />-"Hll \I'r~ IJllk t'qully qake, C.lU:-.ll1g. luglll'r
<br />,lldn.to'\i1IUt, ralHl.... in llll'si' miilk('h,
<br />1 () "iun', tllo:>.l "'ollllH'rll ..1;1I1's do ...nllt,!
<br />',\"dk.1.'l' (l'l'dil qll.dl1\ 111.111llw n....1 01 1111' 11,1
<br />\1011.1 hh I:>. t'\H.II'II11'd b~ hiJ~IH'r ;l11<1 rhilW
<br />,1.'lll1qUl'IH~ I,llt.,,, lUJ;twr Iwr tdPlt.l h.mh.
<br />li[ilt'\ 11Inlg..., dud hli!,lwr I.holll hunkll...., 110\\
<br />,'\ fT. Iht,St, art' ,-,I!'lletllrill 1;ldor:>., Ilwnk.., 10
<br />1'1'1,111\ l'l~ mild hOIJSt'IHICl' ilppn;IJilllol1
<br />fhl' n'II'!)! hoom I HlW"" mort,\;dg(' t'qllll~
<br />-,\Hhdra\\aJ hit.... pJil).('d a rdall\t'l~ mil101
<br />t~k illl)O!sll.'nl1~~ II!Conll.' ,\~ro\.\lh ll\ Illo"" 01
<br />11;(' SOlllh.
<br />I hl' IICi\I'.tcnn ollllook is swill<- lur thl'
<br />South re,Aion, whkh rac~~ Ic~s risk fro III
<br />higher huerest I'~ttes and uu'rC'eling hous-
<br />ing I1tarkcts than does the rcst of Ihe coun-
<br />tn. Onll Florid.! .!nd nnrlhcl'll Virgini.. ..rl'
<br />,II risk of ~, ('nrJ'~'ction of t1H~ir housing
<br />!1hlrkcl. dnd homcbuilding could cven ((('-
<br />cell'rate on the Atlantic coasl given lhe
<br />.t(Teleraljng enHtomy there. Energy expl()-
<br />ration ~tll(1 development favor T(:x..ls ~tnd
<br />I he Soullnvest.
<br />Hdf..l'.\1l ,\Jwllf..tlt
<br />\~I\'('mher .!OUt.
<br />
<br />Mo,x1'{ '" Econollly,i:(II: I, Itlc . '.'....'I'N.e<:onollly.com. holpi4'ccOflOfIl)',com. Procis METRO
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