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<br />11-4
<br />
<br />AREA OVERVIEW
<br />
<br />
<br />Relative Employment Performance (1991=100)
<br />
<br />
<br />150
<br />140
<br />130
<br />120
<br />110
<br />100
<br />
<br />
<br />Forecast
<br />
<br />90
<br />91 92 93 94 95 9" 97 98 ,,')9 ()iJ 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
<br />
<br /> MHOU -U.S. "-HOU
<br /> II' " " , " "; I" , I
<br />1876 1925 197,0 2028 2053 2144 222,8 Gross Metro Product. CSB 2332 241,8 250,1 2578 266,5
<br />42 26 23 2,9 1.2 4,5 3,9 ii,]fi9C 46 3.7 3.4 31 3,4
<br />2,2022 2254.7 22938 2.288.7 2,274,3 2.289,9 2,350,' Total Employment (000) 2.417,5 2.4 75,2 2,5211 2.568,1 2.628,1
<br />16 24 1 7 -02 .0,6 OJ 2,6 (..-'1,;lnge 29 2.4 1.9 19 2,3
<br />48 4,3 4.7 60 67 63 56 Unemployment Rate 52 5.3 5.1 4,9 4,7
<br />62 11.5 6.5 -0,0 41 72 8 1 Personal Income Growth 9,6 7,3 6,6 6.7 6,9
<br />4.644,5 4.7414 4.8451 4.9681 5.0742 5.176.7 5.2801 Population (0001 5.405 7 5.517.1 5.620,0 5.729.8 5,848 4
<br />25.618 28.180 30.496 34.685 42,053 45.103 51.205 Single-Family Permits 56.077 51.745 48.072 47.735 48,896
<br />11.088 7,845 7.117 12.407 16.761 10.933 10.920 Multifamily Permits 14,224 5,771 6.559 6.669 7.743
<br />104,8 1149 1227 1316 1345 135.7 143.0 Existing Home Price (SThs) 149,6 154,8 158,1 162.0 1667
<br />14.646 14.424 21.408 28.158 41.118 28.508 28,292 Mortgage Onginations (SMil) 27.702 25.776 24.766 25.267 26.359
<br />58.2 446 51.3 70,2 49.7 45.4 43,6 Net Migration (000) 624 50.4 55.6 61.6 622
<br />11.651 11.394 13.661 15,055 18.844 20.087 27485 Personal Bankruptcies 1 3.408 16.040 16.607 16.810 17,890
<br /> ANALYSIS
<br />
<br />STRENGTHS
<br />_Significant trade and export links
<br />_Global leader in oil and gas lechnology
<br />_Affordable housing and low buSiness costs.
<br />.Favorable migration trends
<br />
<br />judt' l1early .!.l lllO 11('\\ PO\JllOI1" o\l'r lJll' Ill'"
<br />(1\\' \i'ilr". and "'1~~lllfHllnl (ol1....lrwtlllll jobs In
<br />11:1' th'ar !"rIlL-\llhollgh !lw ..,.calc of HP's \'IH.'rg~
<br />. '\)ldllSIOlll'\ the hlg~:t.st. ('Ilt'n;Y (Oll1jliilW'S h.l\ I'
<br />ll'l,'ll stt'lIdlh plO\\llIg IKKk flll'lr n'n'lll \\mdldll
<br />illid Iun:. fe('dllll: Us t'\IMHSjnn. (Hher n'u'lll
<br />,1)"1'1('(1-. indud(' 111t'''''J Llllhun (,olden Pass I.r\<;
<br />II'nllinal,lllld (on"olidatillll of Clh.'lllll.iJh Illanu-
<br />I;I! lllrer I\LOS' 1 ....,. op('r,IIHllb mllOI ,dtlding
<br />d\I'[" I ~Olflh".
<br />Industt)', ~I.mul;\( llIf1ng ;wri\ll\ I.... ,,1111 l'\.
<br />ld:1II lllg. aHhuugh gn~\\th hlt... sIO\\l"d IlH'(1stlr-
<br />Irom lht' rapid P;li. t' ,'>('('11 (";trlkr tillS ~('ar.
<br />I( \'urdin~: tn 11)(' IH H P\II. f !iring growth in
<br />:1I,(!lufa(furin,~ ha~ ,tl<";f) ..;lo\\cd ('olltUrn'IHl\ ill
<br />i H I! , \"ilh payroll..; lan~dy flal ill tl1\' indllstr~
<br />,)\ 1'1' the P,lsf st\. Illonth<..;.1 iwre has hn'll a shill
<br />:11 II If'tunes \\jlhill llldlluf,K(Uring,Llllplo) l1Ienl
<br />III iiii' rt'ftmng and cht'IllIt"i1b induslri('s, \\hu.'h
<br />ildd Ill'l'n dO\\11 Ihrnugll tlH~ ('i.lrly lMrI oj thl>;'
<br />"l',if", 11.1;0.., :-.wgl'd d strong rOlllt'hl( l.. lJ1 !lu' past
<br />!\'\\ IHontl1s.'\l ,hI' ..;.d.IlW IIlHl', p.l~r()IJ.... in llhlll
<br />1;1.1\ tnring mduslril':-', \\ IUt Ii dro\l'lnlJ glUH 111
<br />IWI' rllit-. \1',lf, "'Udl il"; 1ll.ldllrwry m.ulIlLu
<br />IWillg, Ilil\(' '>Idllnl !ll lhe pa...! ft,,, months.
<br />1111. l111pl'o\elllcnt 1I1 HH' rdining <lml c11t'lH1CdJo..
<br />IHlu'tru's dho (':\pl.lIl1:>. lht' n'ccllt "'UI")..~I' 1Il <1\
<br />'T,I:~i' houri) ('drHIIl);S III Ilhllllll'atturillg, c\ 1,'11
<br />tll\Jugh hour... \\orkt'd l"t'll1am 10\\.
<br />!lIC II0uslon cnmom)' "ill nmtinuc to bcn-
<br />dil in the ne~lr term from slrong: energy in~
<br />{lll~try c.Kti\;ty ttlld ri.!)in~ lTitd(', Stead}' P()Pu~
<br />l.lrion gl'oWlh\vill also help SUPPOl1 growlh
<br />in consunter services and ill th(' construl'lioll
<br />induslry, Pori and t.:onvcnlion tratTle in 1I0U
<br />\\ ill i1lso Iikcly pick up.lungcr tCrln. cominucd
<br />diversification of the Jnctro drC~\'s illdusnial
<br />srnlCturc (me! slill ill)()\"~ il\"~rage population
<br />;..:.rowlh will ensun.' hcahhy L,<-~ononlk growlh,
<br />I It ll"s I'Cl'fOrlll'"Kc is cxpectcd 10 rank inlhc
<br />top quinlih.~ over Ihe forenlst horizon.
<br />Hdh.{'\/1 \'Iumk,u
<br />\11\'.'1111\.,. _.om)
<br />
<br />Rec.:enl Ilcrf{)rl11ann.~. '-..11"(1.1': .~:n'\\lh :1 I!H'
<br />1I11Il....IlIlIl.t 111J(l11l~ IS Illl' ;lI"llt:.'i\ IL'I\i'l liH'
<br />stall'. (,ril\\ll1 lJl tlw IIll.It.() "",1 1:.1.... ;h 1 :,1;h
<br />lKu'lerati.'d III Ilw lhml {]lid;"1 ,Ii II':'
<br />thrnUl4Itlhi'lirsthaUotrlll'u',': IlwlIH'll' ,1["'(1
<br />IS dt'itrly stili lH'rll'lltlfl~: II" HI: I !lll J; I t1n,~~ ,'j , 1 ':~
<br />1'.\.pluf.1I101l. pnx:.llId]i~ll ,ll:d 1'''.Jl\
<br />~linlllg t'l1Iplo\ IIII'll I , \\hl\ 11 :ll,I\! Ij,Hklwd 0:;1 in
<br />I hi.' fIr<..;! halt of Iltt' ~t''-lr. li;''-: ,',1'11 ....il.trpl-. ~i'~;iln
<br />1I1 Ih(' pasl ft'\\ month....,! tlll,l! ,\ :iil'nl :.',t"Ci\', ,: 11),1...
<br />als.o ,IlTt'h'ri:lh'd m Ill!' Irdlj<"IH:'f;lliOllll1dl:',ln
<br />\\I1.lt ISmon', job W.O\\1 11 1111, 10000Iil-.l';\ 1('
<br />n.\l....cd up further.
<br />Trade. TIll' I'orl 01 flnH'.I\~~1 ;-;'(I'[llh <In.
<br />IHHHlH'd Ihal lfadt' \(Jhllll,''- litillU;,:li 11,1' jll:!'1
<br />Ihl\t' Ix.t..'!l rolJu....l !lIh \ I 'ill'. ,11:11,11"1' on Ll).' 1/1'1
<br />oreak lhroll.v,h t<l~t Yt';,lt"" "Cl ~ I:,l. I fW op.,'ljJl1g
<br />of tht' hr....' ph.l...t, of lilt. Ilt",\ f:,;\ ("(JI:l.' ;11'1
<br />l('nllll1allak tillS \ ('dl". ,111d li,t' port ( 111";('
<br />lennlll,11 t..u'l~ 111':\1 ...umllll'! hd;, ;'I'I'P
<br />lriJdcal..q gnl\\ttJdrl\l'r ifl)1 1!lllllj''';Ji(>'11
<br />in\\hok~.ll\'ll'ilth-and !J';1I1'-fll"',!1Jl)ll 1.....,lt ,HI:I\
<br />gnJ\\mg. Totill tr;!ch' Illl\\o... Ii!:, 01 :,~jj ltll.' fit JI, ,,11.n
<br />nt,>ltHlIS <lislric! an' tll....IJ 11;) _" 0\\ ,,".i!
<br />!\to"t of tIllS tr,\{lt' i... ({jlI11!1>~ l'nlll '.....1.11 ill;,r
<br />"t'ls due III 1<ln~t' IIW<lSUn - It: \\,;' \1.1: I....
<br />10 IllOH' Il...l111porll1l1h ].1...1 \\ 1 11'11111 Ill" I'sl
<br />Cll",IIll 1101 .
<br />Investment. 'I ht'n:' lld\" 1\\(, n'( 1'11: .1:1
<br />nOllJKt'nwnts tl1.1I \\lll 11,1\" ,"tll\\I' n1' t!:i:111
<br />tl'rllldkrtsOl1llw!Hll l'I'JJl~,,;1\. IJH'l::...I\\,I~
<br />lhe <lSslgnlllt'1l1 '1ll.Olkl1( '( 'II I It ,I :W\\ " \\ \ en
<br />tr<lrl to huild lln' 11t':\t ,;;~'llt'I,;II'111 "'P,lll !,I\d
<br />\dudt.,lht');>\ billion projl'(1 \\II! 1)\' lOllU:,'II'(]
<br />iIlIlOt:. and \\111 ,Hid 0\1') II ~1l.~~111\ ill
<br />reet job.. 10 tlH' !lIplnl ,II'I';j 11\'" 1!1l' l!\-'.l Ii\('
<br />\ ('<If"'. !\lon' 11l1pOrr.IIHh.llll.... il::i!n I 1'1111'1
<br />lhe ;{(TO"'p.H(' 1l\{IUsln III Ill' '1It'IIIIdro',1 ;lIld
<br />hrlngs 111111011" oj ,l{ldl1l()JI.il l,dn,tJ plll'lm'
<br />m.'nl dollars lu f If II .
<br />I'ht' st'{ond .UllllJll!l( l'!ll"! I ',"lllnh-!lLiL ,)J
<br />tllt'ft..(t'IlI('lwrg\ hooll\. f;l' Itllltllll1i"d
<br />hilllon t':\.p.m";'l(llllo II'> 11l1! (,' liPll'-., \\ Ii:. I '>'. iJ]
<br />
<br />WEAKNESSES
<br />8 Competes with other important regional
<br />cenlers like Dallas and Atlanta
<br />8 Still dependent on vofatife energy industry.
<br />
<br />CURRENT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
<br />
<br />October 2006 Employment Growth
<br />(;.-~ change year ago. 3 roo MA
<br />
<br />
<br />. :~
<br />
<br />FORECAST RISKS
<br />
<br />~",~ f:~ ~~rr~~;:r1~rii~,", I rO:r, ~ g'"
<br />>><~ "~,, )~" ~"lF: &'K^"6:W W ~ '\ "I"P' Ie-
<br />
<br />UPSIDE
<br />. 011 companIes plow profits back Into new
<br />Investment. hinng.
<br />. Trade and distriblllion aCtlvIly throu~Jh the pOr1
<br />garners new Investment
<br />
<br />DOWNSIDE
<br />. Potential terrorist allack on Houslon's energy
<br />facilities
<br />. High prices and tight supplies limit expi1nsion
<br />H1 energy acllvlty
<br />
<br />Moody's Ecor1Ofll)'.com. Inc. . www.oco(10Ilry,COf1l . hel~oconomy.com . Precis METRO
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